华南地区龙眼寒害灾损风险评估

发布时间：2018-11-20 21:01

【摘要】：基于华南地区64个基本气象站1961—2012年逐日气象资料,采用公认的龙眼寒害灾害指标,结合农业气象灾害风险研究的方法与模拟技术,并考虑龙眼寒害灾损减产风险在不同生育期(花芽生理期、花芽形态分化期、休眠期)之间的差别,对1961—2012年华南地区龙眼不同发育时段的寒害灾损最大风险进行定量评估与分析.结果表明:在花芽生理期,各地区龙眼受灾最严重的是轻度寒害,其次为重度寒害,最后为中度寒害;不同寒害致灾等级对各地龙眼造成的危害程度不同,在轻度寒害威胁下,龙眼受灾轻重次序为福建、广东和海南、广西,中度寒害威胁下,龙眼受灾轻重次序为海南、广东和广西、福建,重度寒害威胁下,龙眼受灾轻重次序为海南、广东和广西、福建.在花芽形态分化期,各地区龙眼受灾最严重的是轻度寒害,其次为重度寒害,最后为中度寒害;该时段内不同寒害致灾等级对各地龙眼造成的危害程度相似,龙眼受灾轻重次序均为海南、广东和广西、福建.在休眠期,各地区龙眼寒害受灾最严重的是轻度寒害,其次为重度寒害,最后为中度寒害;该时段内不同寒害致灾等级对各地龙眼造成的危害程度不完全相同,轻度和重度寒害威胁下,各地龙眼受灾轻重次序为海南、广东和广西、福建,中度寒害威胁下,海南和广西龙眼受灾最轻,其次为广东,福建受灾最严重.同一寒害致灾等级下,不同发育时段龙眼寒害灾损减产最大风险指数差异显著:轻度寒害威胁下,各地区龙眼在花芽生理期受到危害最重,其次为花芽形态分化期,休眠期危害最轻;中度和重度寒害威胁下,各地区龙眼在花芽生理期受到危害最重,其次为休眠期,花芽形态分化期危害最轻.
[Abstract]:Based on the daily meteorological data of 64 basic weather stations in South China from 1961 to 2012, the recognized index of longan chilling disaster was adopted, and the method and simulation technology of agricultural meteorological disaster risk research were combined. And consider the difference of the risk of loss reduction of longan cold injury in different growth stages (physiological stage of flower bud, morphological differentiation of flower bud, dormancy stage). A quantitative assessment and analysis of the maximum risk of cold damage in different development periods of longan in South China from 1961 to 2012 was carried out. The results showed that in the physiological period of flower bud, the most serious damage of longan was mild chilling injury, followed by severe chilling injury, and finally moderate chilling injury. The degree of damage to longan caused by different degrees of chilling injury is different. Under the threat of mild cold injury, the order of disaster severity of longan is Fujian, Guangdong and Hainan, Guangxi, and moderate cold threat, and the order of Longan disaster is Hainan. Guangdong and Guangxi, Fujian, severe cold damage threat, Longan disaster severity order is Hainan, Guangdong and Guangxi, Fujian. In the period of flower bud morphological differentiation, the most serious disaster of longan was mild chilling injury, followed by severe chilling injury, and finally moderate chilling injury. In this period, the degree of damage caused by different degrees of cold damage to longan is similar, and the order of disaster severity of longan is Hainan, Guangdong, Guangxi and Fujian. During dormancy period, the most serious cold injury of longan was mild chilling injury, followed by severe chilling injury and moderate chilling injury. In this period, the degree of damage to longan caused by different degrees of chilling injury is not exactly the same. Under the threat of mild and severe chilling injury, the order of disaster severity in different regions of Longan is Hainan, Guangdong and Guangxi, Fujian, and moderate cold threat. Hainan and Guangxi Longyan the least affected, followed by Guangdong, Fujian the worst disaster. Under the same degree of cold injury, the maximum risk index of reducing the yield of longan in different development period was significant. Under the threat of mild cold injury, Longan suffered the most serious damage in the physiological period of flower bud, followed by the period of morphological differentiation of flower bud. The danger of dormancy is the least; Under the threat of moderate and severe chilling injury, Longan suffered the most serious damage in the physiological period of flower bud, followed by dormancy period, and the least harm was in the period of flower bud morphological differentiation.
【作者单位】：中国气象科学研究院;宁德市气象局;
【基金】：中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2013Z008)资助~~
【分类号】：S667.2;S426

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