南水北调对江苏沿线城市生态经济发展的影响研究

发布时间：2017-12-28 12:25

本文关键词：南水北调对江苏沿线城市生态经济发展的影响研究　出处：《东南大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：南水北调工程是一项大规模的战略性调水工程。它以改善居民生存环境,促进经济可持续发展为目的,依照人的意志在时间和空间维度上对水资源进行再分配。水资源固有的生态经济价值可以让人们获得巨大的经济和生态环境效益这一点是毫无疑问的,然而,调水工程的建设也将不可避免地改变区域水资源状况,改变原始的生态环境,打破原有的生态平衡,如果处理不当,将会造成严重的,甚至是不可逆转的生态环境破坏,使人们的生存与发展面临威胁。因而,设计科学合理的调水工程,将工程负面影响降到最低以最大化工程综合效益显得尤其重要。本文依据南水北调东线工程生态经济影响的研究结论提出相关政策建议,为优化类似工程项目的建设程序,提高决策水平、管理水平与投资效果提供借鉴,对东线第二、三期工程规划建设具有实践研究的价值。本文建立了调水工程建设期生态经济影响的评价指标体系,分别利用模糊数学评价法、距离指数法对生态经济压力子系统、响应子系统和状态子系统进行综合评价,得出结论：在建设期,调水工程对江苏沿线城市生态经济压力子系统有较小的负面影响,对响应子系统有较大的正面影响,对状态子系统的影响则经历了从极小的负面影响到极小的正面影响,再到较小的正面影响的过程,并且这种正面影响有继续增大的趋势。在调水工程运营期,论文建立了调水工程生态经济影响的系统动力学模型,通过方案设定与模拟及各方案仿真结果的比较,得出结论：从总体上来看,随着调水量的增加,农业、工业生产总值以及人口数量都有不同程度的上升,污水存量减少,漏斗面积降低；随着调水污染率的增大,农业、工业生产总值以及人口数量都有一定程度的下降,污水存量剧增,漏斗面积增加。从生态经济各子系统来看,对于农业子系统,随着调水量的连续增加,农业用水效率逐渐降低,并且当调水量增加到一定量时,农业生产总值将不再上升,调水污染率对农业生产总值的影响较小；对于工业子系统,随着调水量的连续增加,工业生产总值增长率下降幅度甚微,工业生产用水效率维持在一个较稳定的水平上,然而,工业生产总值受调水污染率的影响较大,随着调水污染率的增大,生产总值降幅显著；对于人口子系统,随着调水量的增加,人口数量增加,随着调水污染率的增大,人口数量减少,但变化幅度甚微,这与人口数量的影响因素较复杂有关；对于环境子系统,调水量和调水污染率的变化对污水存量和降落漏斗面积的影响都比较大,它们都随调水量的增加而减少,随调水污染率的增大而增加,这也充分体现了水资源在生态环境中的重要性。文章最后从工程规划、移民安置、污染治理以及调水量规划这四个方面提出相关政策建议,为东线第二、三期工程建设提供借鉴。
[Abstract]:The south to North Water Transfer Project is a large-scale strategic water diversion project. It aims at improving the living environment of the residents and promoting the sustainable development of the economy, and redistributing water resources in terms of time and space according to human will. However, water resources ecological economic inherent value can make people obtain the huge economic and ecological benefits of this is no doubt that, the construction of water diversion project will inevitably change the status of regional water resources, change the original ecological environment, break the ecological balance of the original, if not handled properly, it will cause serious. Even irreversible damage to the ecological environment, people's survival and development is facing threats. Therefore, it is particularly important to design a scientific and reasonable water transfer project and minimize the negative impact of the project to maximize the comprehensive benefits of the project. The research conclusion and puts forward relevant policy suggestions based on the ecological and economic effects of the south to North Water Diversion Project, in order to optimize the similar project construction procedures, improve the decision-making level, management level and investment results provide reference, with practical research on the planning and construction of the east of the second, third phase of the project value. This paper establishes the effect of ecological economy construction of water diversion project evaluation index system, using fuzzy evaluation method, distance index method draws the conclusion on the response subsystem and the subsystem of eco economic pressure subsystem, comprehensive evaluation, in the construction period, the negative impact of water diversion projects are small along the Jiangsu city ecosystem the economic pressure subsystem, has a greater positive impact on the response subsystem, experienced a positive impact from the negative impact of minimum to minimal impact on the state of subsystem, then to the positive impact of the smaller, and the positive effect of increasing trend. In the operation of the water diversion project, the system dynamics model is established in this paper the influence of eco economic water diversion project, comparison, setting and simulation and the simulation results of each scheme through the program draws the conclusion: on the whole, with the increase of water, agriculture, industrial GDP and population have increased in different degree. The stock of water is reduced, the funnel area decreased; with the increase of water pollution rate, agriculture, the number of total industrial production and population has a certain degree of decline, the stock of water increases, the funnel area increased. From the perspective of ecological economy for every subsystem, agricultural subsystem, along with the continuous increase of water, agricultural water use efficiency decreased gradually, and when the water quantity increases to a certain amount, gross agricultural production will no longer increase, water pollution rate has little effect on agricultural GDP; for the industrial system, with the continuous increase the water, the growth rate of industrial production value little decrease, the water use efficiency of industrial production remained at a relatively stable level, however, the gross industrial output value by adjusting effect of water pollution rate is larger, with the increase of water pollution rate, GDP fell significantly; the population subsystem, with the increase of water transfer. The population increased, with the increase of water pollution rate, the population decreased, but the extent of this effect, and factors affecting the population is more complex; for the environment subsystem, water diversion and diversion The change rate of water pollution are relatively large in stock and the effect of sewage funnel area of the landing, all of them with the increasing of water content decreased with the increase of water pollution rate increased, which fully reflects the importance of water resources in the ecological environment. Finally, from the four aspects of engineering planning, resettlement, pollution control and water volume planning, this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations, so as to provide reference for the second, third phase of east line construction.
【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TV68;F127

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