气候变化条件下叶尔羌流域水库蒸发变化分析

发布时间：2018-01-16 07:15

本文关键词：气候变化条件下叶尔羌流域水库蒸发变化分析　出处：《人民长江》2016年18期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为了研究气候变化对水库水面蒸发的影响,以叶尔羌河流域为研究对象,选取气温、相对湿度以及风速作为主要气候影响因子,基于人工神经网络构建统计降尺度模型。对研究区在全球气候模式BCC-CSM1.1三种情景(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP8.5)下2020s、2050s、2080s时段内的蒸发量进行了预测。结果表明:叶尔羌流域水库的未来蒸发量总体呈增加态势,蒸发量E_(RCP2.6)E_(RCP4.5)E_(RCP8.5);2020s时段内3种情景模式下所选取水库年平均蒸发量为1 922.4~2 337.9 mm,蒸发渗漏损失率为35.17%~36.40%。
[Abstract]:In order to study the effect of climate change on the evaporation of reservoir surface, the Yerqiang River Basin was chosen as the research object, and the air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed were selected as the main climatic factors. The statistical downscaling model was constructed based on artificial neural network. The three scenarios of global climate model (BCC-CSM1.1) in the study area were as follows: RCP2.6 / RCP4.5. The results show that the future evaporation of Yerqiang Reservoir is increasing in the future, and the evaporation is predicted in the 2020s / 2050s / 20s ~ s period under RCP8.5 / RCP8.5.The results show that the future evaporation of the Yerqiang Reservoir is increasing in the future. Evaporation quantity / RCP2.6 / RCP4.5e / RCP8.5e; The annual average evaporation of the selected reservoir is 1 922. 4 ~ 2 337.9 mm and the rate of evaporation leakage is 35. 17% ~ 36. 40 mm.
【作者单位】：河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室;
【基金】：国家科技支撑计划项目(2013BAC10B01)
【分类号】：P333
【正文快照】： 1研究背景近年来,随着全球气候变暖,从暖干化向暖湿化转型,我国内陆地区水文循环变异性增加,特大洪涝、干旱等灾害性事件频繁发生且灾害程度不断加剧。而蒸发作为水文循环的重要一环,受气候变化的影响最为直接;同时,对于以冰雪融水为主要水源的干旱内陆地区,蒸发,尤其是大水体

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