土石坝风险分析的灰色模糊评判方法研究

发布时间：2018-01-28 20:35

本文关键词： 土石坝风险分析网络分析法灰色模糊综合评判　出处：《郑州大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：土石坝是国内应用最为广泛、发展最快的坝型，然而由于各种原因，很多早期建设的土石坝存在着较为严重的安全隐患。通过风险分析可以有效识别出影响土石坝安全的主要风险因素，合理评价土石坝的风险程度，并指导病险水库的除险加固或改扩建，具有很好的实际意义。针对土石坝风险分析的复杂性和不确定性问题，将网络分析法和灰色模糊数学理论引入土石坝风险分析中，建立基于改进网络分析法的灰色模糊综合评判模型，并将其应用于实际工程中，验证了模型的可行性。主要研究内容如下： (1)根据我国实际情况，考虑我国大中型、小型水库存在的差异以及东、西部文化、经济、人口密度等方面的不同，分别建立适用于我国东、西部的大中型和小型水库大坝的风险标准。 (2)以层次分析法为基础，详细阐述网络分析法的结构原理和极限相对排序向量的计算方法，，并从标度和判断矩阵的构造入手引入三角模糊指数标度，对传统网络分析法进行改进。 (3)在网络分析法、灰色模糊数学理论的基础上，建立基于改进网络分析法的灰色模糊综合评判模型；将评判模型应用于土石坝风险分析，构建土石坝风险分析的指标体系和网络结构图，制定各风险指标的等级划分标准，给出各指标权重计算的方法和步骤，确定各指标隶属函数的选取。 (4)应用土石坝风险综合评判模型对某水库大坝工程风险状况进行综合评价，评价结论符合水库的实际情况，验证了模型的可行性。
[Abstract]:Earth-rock dam is the most widely used and fastest developing dam in China, however, due to various reasons. Many earth-rock dams built in the early stage have serious hidden dangers. Through risk analysis, the main risk factors affecting the safety of earth-rock dams can be effectively identified and the risk degree of earth-rock dams can be reasonably evaluated. It is of great practical significance to guide the reinforcement or reconstruction of the dangerous reservoir. Aiming at the complexity and uncertainty of the risk analysis of earth-rock dam, the network analysis method and the grey fuzzy mathematics theory are introduced into the risk analysis of earth-rock dam. The grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on improved network analysis method is established and applied to practical engineering to verify the feasibility of the model. The main research contents are as follows: According to the actual situation of our country, considering the differences of large and medium-sized reservoirs and small reservoirs in our country, as well as the differences in culture, economy, population density and so on in the east and west of China, respectively, they are applicable to the east of our country. Risk criteria for large and small reservoir dams in the west. Based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the structure principle of the network analysis method and the calculation method of the limit relative sort vector are expounded in detail, and the triangular fuzzy exponential scale is introduced from the construction of the scale and judgment matrix. The traditional network analysis method is improved. 3) on the basis of network analysis method and grey fuzzy mathematics theory, the grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on improved network analysis method is established. The evaluation model is applied to the risk analysis of earth-rock dam, the index system and network structure diagram of the risk analysis of earth-rock dam are constructed, the classification standard of each risk index is formulated, and the methods and steps of calculating the weight of each index are given. Determine the selection of membership function of each index. 4) the comprehensive evaluation model of the risk of earth-rock dam is used to evaluate the risk situation of a reservoir dam project. The evaluation results are in line with the actual situation of the reservoir, and the feasibility of the model is verified.
【学位授予单位】：郑州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV641

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