海塘工程安全评价研究

发布时间：2018-01-28 21:44

本文关键词： 海塘工程安全评价指标体系权重评价准则层次分析法德尔菲法专家评价法模糊综合评价　出处：《浙江工业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：海塘工程是浙江等沿海地区抵御风暴潮袭击的基础设施和防洪防潮工程体系的重要组成部分,能有效降低台风、暴雨等自然灾害带来的危害和损失,是周边人民生命财产安全的重要保障。海塘安全评价是除险加固工作的一项重要前期工作,科学合理地评价海塘工程的安全性,明确海塘目前的安全等级,为海塘采取防范措施和进一步加固提供设计依据,其研究具有重要的理论价值和应用价值。同时对及时应对严峻的防洪防潮形势,减少人民群众和国家的灾害损失,保证公共安全具有重要的意义。在查阅大量文献的基础上,借鉴大坝、堤防等水工建筑物安全评价方法和经验,深入探讨和研究了适合海塘工程的多层次综合评价技术,并建立了海塘工程安全综合评价模型。主要研究内容和结论如下： (1)构建海塘工程安全评价指标体系。针对海塘工程的特点,构建了海塘工程安全综合评价的多层次指标评价体系。同时,明确了海塘工程评价单元、典型断面选取的原则,为海塘后续的评价工作奠定了基础。 (2)确定评价指标的权重。将层次分析法(AHP)和德尔菲法(Delphi法)相结合,根据两种方法计算指标权重的相对误差,决定其在指标权重中所占的权值,采用加权平均法确定指标的最终权重。 (3)拟定指标评价准则。将海塘工程待评价单项指标分成定性指标和定量指标,以海塘工程安全等级划分标准为基础,分别制定了定性指标和定量指标评价标准和评分区间。 (4)建立海塘工程模糊综合评价模型。定性指标通过专家评价法和模糊统计原则确定指标隶属度,定量指标根据评分和隶属函数确定指标隶属度。结合评价指标权重,按照评价指标体系逐层进行综合判定得到目标层隶属度评价向量,根据最大隶属度原则确定海塘的安全等级。同时结合单项指标评分和权重,采用层次分析法得到海塘整体评分和安全等级。对比分析两个评价结果,得出海塘工程的安全等级。 (5)海塘工程安全评价模型实例应用。以浙江省岱山县栲门海塘为例,运用已建立的综合评价数学模型,对栲门海塘进行了综合评价,结果表明栲门海塘属于不安全的等级。最后,对栲门海塘存在的主要问题进行了分析,给出了对其进行除险加固的建议。
[Abstract]:Seawall engineering is an important part of the infrastructure and flood control and dampproof engineering system in coastal areas such as Zhejiang Province, which can effectively reduce the damage and losses caused by natural disasters such as typhoons and rainstorms. Seawall safety evaluation is an important preliminary work in the work of danger removal and reinforcement. The safety of seawall engineering is evaluated scientifically and reasonably, and the current safety grade of seawall is defined. It provides the design basis for taking preventive measures and further strengthening of seawall, and its research has important theoretical value and application value. At the same time, it can deal with the severe situation of flood control and dampproof in time. It is of great significance to reduce the disaster losses of the people and the country and to ensure public safety. Based on the reference of a large number of documents, the safety evaluation methods and experiences of hydraulic structures such as dams and levees are used for reference. The multi-level comprehensive evaluation technology suitable for seawall engineering is deeply discussed and studied, and the comprehensive evaluation model of seawall engineering safety is established. The main contents and conclusions are as follows: 1) constructing the seawall engineering safety evaluation index system. According to the characteristics of seawall engineering, the multi-level index evaluation system of seawall engineering safety comprehensive evaluation is constructed. At the same time, the seawall engineering evaluation unit is defined. The principle of selecting typical sections lays a foundation for the subsequent evaluation of seawall. (2) determining the weight of evaluation index. Combining AHP and Delphi method, the relative error of index weight is calculated according to the two methods. The final weight of the index is determined by the weighted average method. (3) to draw up evaluation criteria for seawall engineering. The single index of seawall engineering to be evaluated is divided into qualitative index and quantitative index, which is based on the criteria of seawall engineering safety grade classification. The qualitative index and the quantitative index evaluation standard and the scoring interval were established respectively. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of seawall engineering is established. The qualitative index is determined by expert evaluation method and fuzzy statistical principle. Quantitative index is determined according to the score and membership function. Combined with the weight of evaluation index, the objective level membership evaluation vector is obtained according to the evaluation index system. According to the principle of maximum membership degree, the safety grade of seawall was determined. At the same time, combined with the single index score and weight, the overall score and safety grade of seawall were obtained by AHP, and the two evaluation results were compared and analyzed. The safety grade of seawall engineering is obtained. 5) the application of seawall engineering safety evaluation model. Taking Castanmen seawall in Daishan County, Zhejiang Province as an example, the comprehensive evaluation of Castanopsis fargesii seawall has been carried out by using the established comprehensive evaluation mathematical model. The results show that Castanopsis kawakamen seawall is an unsafe grade. Finally, the main problems of Castanopsis kawakamen seawall are analyzed, and suggestions for strengthening the seawall are given.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U656

【参考文献】