基于气象要素的黄河宁夏段流凌密度预报模型

发布时间：2018-02-02 03:44

本文关键词： 黄河流凌密度预报模型　出处：《气象科技》2017年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：历史上,黄河宁夏段曾多次发生漫滩甚至决堤淹田等重大气象衍生次生灾害,带来严重损失,且大多发生在封河或开河过程中,流凌密度是判断开、封河的重要指标。本研究利用黄河宁夏段2008—2015年气象水文资料,对流凌密度与其前3~7天的气象要素进行多元线性回归和单要素曲线模拟,结果表明:利用气象要素资料开展流凌密度定量化预报可行,模型拟合度较高,可实现基于数值天气预报的黄河凌汛流凌密度预报业务。
[Abstract]:In the history of Ningxia section of the Yellow River, there have been many major meteorological secondary disasters, such as flood beach or even burst bank flooded field, which brought serious losses, and most of them occurred in the process of river closure or Kaihe River, and the density of runoff was judged to be open. Based on the meteorological and hydrological data of Ningxia section of the Yellow River from 2008 to 2015, the convection transit density and the meteorological elements of the first 37 days were simulated by multivariate linear regression and single element curve simulation. The results show that it is feasible to carry out quantitative prediction of current flow density using meteorological element data, and the model fitting degree is relatively high, which can realize the Yellow River ice flow density forecast based on numerical weather forecast.
【作者单位】：南京信息工程大学;中国旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室;宁夏气象防灾减灾重点实验室;中国气象局干部培训学院;
【基金】：宁夏气象局科学技术研究项目“基于多源卫星资料的宁夏黄河凌汛监测及灾害预估”;宁夏气象局气象科技创新领军人才项目(宁气办发[2017]20号)资助
【分类号】：P338
【正文快照】： http://www.qxkj.net.cn气象科技宁夏气象局科学技术研究项目“基于多源卫星资料的宁夏黄河凌汛监测及灾害预估”、宁夏气象局气象科技创新领军人才项目(宁气办发[2017]20号)资助引言黄河宁夏段自中卫南长滩入境,至石嘴山麻黄沟出境,全程397km,为天然和水库运行双重过渡性河段

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