基于超短期来水预报的大规模水电站群发电计划调整策略

发布时间：2018-02-05 03:39

本文关键词： 超短期来水预报大规模水电站群水库调度发电计划调整策略　出处：《水电能源科学》2016年09期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：针对日前计划负荷和来水预测不确定性带来的水电站群超短期调度中水位难以达到预控目标的问题,提出了基于超短期来水预报的大规模水电站群发电计划调整策略。利用超短期负荷预测信息和径流预测信息,以调度期末理想水位偏差为指标对电站进行排序,生成电站集合,实时调整日前发电计划,滚动生成超短期发电计划。以我国云南澜沧江、金沙江、大盈江和李仙江干流上的22座水电站为例验证该方法的正确性,实例结果表明,该方法可充分利用超短期预报成果,实时调整发电计划,最小化调度偏差,满足超短期调度的时效性、实用性、经济性的要求,可为类似工程提供参考。
[Abstract]:In view of the uncertainty of pre-day planning load and prediction of incoming water, it is difficult to reach the pre-control target in the ultra-short-term operation of hydropower stations. The adjustment strategy of large-scale hydropower station group power generation plan based on ultra-short term water coming forecast is put forward. Using super short term load forecasting information and runoff forecasting information, the optimal water level deviation at the end of the dispatching period is taken as the index to sort the power station. Generation of power station assembly, real-time adjustment of pre-day generation plan, rolling generation of ultra-short-term power generation plan. To China's Yunnan Lancang River, Jinsha River. The correctness of the method is verified by 22 hydropower stations on the main stream of Daying River and Lixian River. The results show that the method can make full use of the results of ultra-short-term forecast, adjust the power generation plan in real time and minimize the deviation of dispatching. It can meet the requirements of timeliness, practicability and economy of ultra-short-term scheduling, and can be used as a reference for similar projects.
【作者单位】：三峡大学水利与环境学院;云南电力调度控制中心;大连理工大学水电与水信息研究所;
【基金】：高层次人才科研启动基金项目(20152957) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(DUT15TD38)
【分类号】：TV737
【正文快照】： 1引言近年来,我国水电事业发展迅猛,水电富集的省网管理的水电装机规模日趋庞大,合理安排水电调度计划已成为水电富集省网亟待解决的问题[1,2]。尤其是超短期调度,它是一个持续滚动修正的过程,但目前区间来水预报及上下游梯级电站发电计划的匹配调整主要依靠人工计算与经验调

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