天一水电站汛前径流的年际增量预报方法初探

发布时间：2018-02-13 21:22

本文关键词： 天一水电站年际增量年际信号年代际信号中长期径流预报　出处：《中国农村水利水电》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：围绕南方电网辖区范围内天生桥一级水电站(天一电站)的汛前(4-5月)径流的预测问题,引入年际增量预报概念,并与传统的预报模型进行比较。分析表明,径流的原值序列同时包含年际和年代际信号,预报难度较大,而年际增量序列则以年际信号为主。相关分析表明,增量序列放大了影响径流的因子信号,更易找到具有物理意义的气象因子。对预报模型进行十年的试预报检验,结果表明增量预报的丰枯一致率达到80%,并且抓住了2010-2013年的连续偏枯现象。预报相对误差合格率达到70%,同时很好地再现了天一电站汛前径流的1991-2005的上升趋势和2006-2013年的下降趋势。究其原因,是由于增量预报模型既较好地捕捉到径流增量的年际信号,同时又保留了实测径流的年代际信号。
[Abstract]:Based on the prediction of runoff of Tianshengqiao I Hydropower Station (Tianyi Hydropower Station) within the area of Southern Power Grid, the concept of interannual incremental forecasting is introduced and compared with the traditional forecasting model. The original value series of runoff contains interannual and decadal signals, which is difficult to forecast, while interannual increment series is dominated by interannual signals. Correlation analysis shows that the increment series amplifies the factor signals affecting runoff. It is easier to find weather factors of physical significance. The results show that the consistency rate of increment forecast is 80%, and the continuous deviation phenomenon of 2010-2013 is grasped. The qualified rate of relative error of forecast is 70. Meanwhile, the rising trend of runoff before flood in Tianyi Hydropower Station from 1991 to 2005 and the period from 2006 to 2013 are well reproduced. The cause of the decline, It is because the incremental prediction model not only captures the interannual signal of runoff increment, but also retains the Interdecadal signal of measured runoff.
【作者单位】：中国南方电网电力调度控制中心;河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室;
【基金】：南方电网科技项目K-ZD2014-014 国家自然科学基金(41205038,51190091,41105044)
【分类号】：TV124

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