基于多目标规划的呼图壁河流域水资源优化配置

发布时间：2018-02-14 14:04

本文关键词： 呼图壁河流域水资源供需平衡多目标优化配置　出处：《新疆大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：呼图壁河流域位于东天山北麓中段，，准噶尔盆地南缘，乌昌地区昌吉州呼图壁县中部，属于典型的干旱内陆区，相对于天山北坡东部其他河流，呼图壁河流域水量较丰沛，但由于水资源分布与经济发展不相匹配及季节分布不均匀，造成水资源不能充分利用，洪、旱灾害频发，制约了流域优势的正常发挥和经济发展。本文通过查阅呼图壁县年鉴、水资源公报及国内外文献，搜集了呼图壁河流域近20年的水资源利用、经济发展及社会发展资料，在此基础上，分析了水资源开发利用现状，运用指标法、趋势分析法等预测2020年、2030年各用水户需水量，同时预测流域供水量，根据供水量和需水量预测结果，进行供需平衡分析，在此结果上，建立了多目标优化配置模型，得到六种不同的配置方案。本研究主要得出以下结论：（1）各水平年供需水量预测结果。根据预测，得出2020年可供水量为7.462×108m3，2030年可供水量为7.462×108m3；2020年、2030年在强化节水条件下生活需水量分别为0.079×108m3、0.09×108m3，农业需水量为6.23×108m3、6.88×108m3，工业需水量为0.205×108m3、0.218×108m3，第三产业需水量为0.037×108m3、0.036×108m3，生态环境需水量为0.054×108m3、0.117×108m。（2）供需平衡分析呼图壁河流域现状年供水量可以满足当前经济社会发展，这主要是因为大量开采地下水；2020年，在考虑节水措施及保护水资源情况下，水资源供需基本保持平衡；2030年，随着经济快速发展，水资源已不足以支撑其发展，只有快速引进新的高新技术、节水设施才能够扭转这一严峻态势。（3）建立多目标规划模型，模型配置结果分析与修正。多目标优化配置模型得出六种不同的配置方案，第一种结果是综合用水效益最大，剩下五种方案分别是生活用水效益最大、生态环境效益最大、工业用水效益最大、第三产业用水效益最大和农业用水效益最大。本文认为生态环境效益最大方案更科学的配置了呼图壁河流域水资源。
[Abstract]:The Hutubi River Basin is located in the middle section of the northern foot of the East Tianshan Mountains, the southern margin of the Junggar Basin, and the central part of the Hutubi County of Changjizhou in the Wuchang area, which is a typical arid inland area. Compared with other rivers in the eastern part of the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, the Hutubi River basin has a relatively abundant amount of water. However, the distribution of water resources does not match with the economic development and the seasonal distribution is not even, which results in the insufficient utilization of water resources and the frequent occurrence of flood and drought disasters, which restricts the normal exertion of the advantages and economic development of the river basin. By consulting the yearbook of Hutubi County, the Bulletin of Water Resources and the literature at home and abroad, this paper collects the data of water resources utilization, economic development and social development in the Hutubi River basin in the past 20 years. On this basis, the present situation of water resources exploitation and utilization is analyzed. Using index method and trend analysis method to forecast the water demand of each household in 2020 and 2030, at the same time to forecast the water supply of the watershed, according to the forecast result of water supply and water demand, the balance of supply and demand is analyzed. A multi-objective optimal allocation model is established and six different allocation schemes are obtained. The main conclusions of this study are as follows: 1) the annual water supply and demand forecasting results of each level. According to projections, The results show that the available water supply is 7.462 脳 108m3in 2020, 7.462 脳 108m3in 2030, 0.079 脳 108m30.09 脳 108m3in 2020 and 2020, 6.23 脳 108m30.88 脳 108m3in agriculture, 0.205 脳 108m3n3m30.218 脳 108m3in industrial, 0.037 脳 108m30.036 脳 108m3in tertiary industry, 0.054 脳 108m3n30.117 脳 108m3m3in ecological environment. The current annual supply of water in the Hutubi River basin can meet the current economic and social development, mainly due to the massive exploitation of groundwater; in 2020, the supply and demand of water resources remained basically balanced in consideration of water-saving measures and protection of water resources; and in 2030, With the rapid development of economy, water resources are not enough to support its development. Only by introducing new high and new technology quickly, can water saving facilities reverse this grim situation. (3) the multi-objective programming model is established, and the results of model configuration are analyzed and revised. Six different allocation schemes are obtained from the multi-objective optimal allocation model. The first result is that the efficiency of comprehensive water use is the greatest, the remaining five schemes are the largest benefit of domestic water use, the greatest benefit of ecological environment and the greatest benefit of industrial water use. The tertiary industry has the greatest benefit of water use and the biggest benefit of agricultural water use. This paper considers that the biggest scheme of ecological and environmental benefits is more scientific allocation of water resources in the Hutubi River basin.
【学位授予单位】：新疆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV213

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