江苏省万元GDP用水量影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-02-27 18:21

本文关键词： 江苏省万元GDP用水量主成分分析向量自回归模型脉冲响应函数分析　出处：《扬州大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：江苏省是我国的用水大省、农业大省,提高综合用水效率对实现江苏省经济的可持续发展有着重要的意义。本文通过对文献的广泛阅读,在充分汲取专家意见的基础上,结合江苏省农业、工业和生活的用水现状,构建以万元GDP用水量为研究目标的江苏省综合用水效率指标体系,在对数学模型理解的基础上,采用多种方法进行江苏省用水效率影响因素的辨识,为效率红线的动态化管理提供基础研究,为实行最严格水资源管理制度提供技术支撑,为江苏省水资源调控提供理论依据。本着宏观原则,本文分别从人口、资源、经济、科技、管理五个方面对影响江苏省万元GDP用水量的因素进行了辨识,选取了总人口、人均水资源量等23个指标来构建影响因素指标体系。通过对指标特性和统计规律的分析发现,人口、经济、科技、管理因素属于政府可调控因素,文章选用多元回归分析找寻因素与万元GDP用水量之间的响应关系,收集整理了1997～2012年江苏省人口、经济、科技和管理四个方面的指标数据,考虑到指标因素之间具有较强的相关性,采用主成分分析(PCA)对指标进行处理,消除共线性的干扰,并在此基础上建立多元线性回归方程,对影响江苏省万元GDP用水量的重要因素进行辨识,结果显示,人口、经济、科技、管理因素均对其有较大的影响,其中城镇化率(UZ)、第一产业产值占GDP比重(PG)、节水灌溉面积(SI)、水价(TF)影响较显著。另一方面,资源因素诸如年均气温等,属于无法人为改变的因素。在分析方法上,回归系数解释为通过改变自变量来观察因变量随之改变的强烈程度,资源因素无法人为改变,表明了不能采用线性回归模型通过改变自变量的方式来对资源因素进行分析,但气候条件对农业灌溉水利用效率的影响是不可忽略的。通过对气象气候资料的分析,江苏省近年来资源因素变化幅度较小,总体呈现稳定性。针对这种情况,本文引入了基于向量自回归模型(VAR)的脉冲响应函数,对资源因素与目标变量江苏省万元GDP用水量之间的关系进行研究。本文对1997～2012年资源因素指标进行相关分析,消除指标间的线性干扰,并与江苏省万元GDP用水量进行混合,建立向量自回归模型。在此基础上通过脉冲响应函数对资源因素进行深入分析。结果显示,资源因素对江苏省万元GDP用水量有较大的影响,其中人均水资源量(WP)影响最为显著。
[Abstract]:Jiangsu Province is a big water using province and a big agricultural province in our country. It is of great significance to improve the efficiency of comprehensive water use to realize the sustainable development of Jiangsu's economy. Combined with the current situation of agricultural, industrial and domestic water use in Jiangsu Province, a comprehensive water use efficiency index system of Jiangsu Province, which aims at 10 thousand yuan GDP water consumption, is constructed, and based on the understanding of mathematical model, the index system of comprehensive water use efficiency in Jiangsu Province is established. The identification of influencing factors of water use efficiency in Jiangsu Province by various methods provides basic research for dynamic management of efficiency red line, technical support for implementing the strictest water resources management system, and theoretical basis for water resources regulation and control in Jiangsu Province. Based on the macro principle, this paper identifies the factors that affect the water consumption of GDP in Jiangsu Province from the five aspects of population, resources, economy, science and technology, and selects the total population. Through the analysis of the index characteristics and statistical laws, it is found that the population, economy, science and technology, and management factors belong to the government- controllable factors. This paper selects multiple regression analysis to find out the response relationship between the factors and the water consumption of ten thousand yuan GDP, and collects and collates the index data of population, economy, science and technology and management in Jiangsu Province from 1997 to 2012. Taking into account the strong correlation between the factors, the principal component analysis (PCAA) is used to deal with the index to eliminate the co-linear interference, and on the basis of this, the multivariate linear regression equation is established. The important factors that affect the water consumption of GDP in Jiangsu Province are identified. The results show that population, economy, science and technology, and management have great influence on it. Among them, the urbanization rate is very high, the primary industry's output value accounts for the proportion of GDP, the water-saving irrigation area and the water price are significantly affected. On the other hand, resource factors, such as average annual temperature, are factors that cannot be changed artificially. In analytical methods, regression coefficients are interpreted as observing the intensity of dependent variables by changing independent variables. The resource factors can not be changed artificially, which indicates that the linear regression model can not be used to analyze the resource factors by changing the independent variables. However, the effect of climatic conditions on the utilization efficiency of agricultural irrigation water can not be ignored. Through the analysis of meteorological and climatic data, the variation of resource factors in Jiangsu Province in recent years is relatively small and the overall situation is stable. In this paper, the impulse response function based on vector autoregressive model (VAR) is introduced to study the relationship between resource factors and target variable GDP water consumption of ten thousand yuan in Jiangsu Province. The correlation analysis of resource factor indexes from 1997 to 2012 is carried out in this paper. The vector autoregressive model is established by eliminating the linear interference between the indexes and mixing with the water consumption of ten thousand yuan GDP in Jiangsu Province. On the basis of this, the resource factors are deeply analyzed by impulse response function. The results show that, The resource factor has great influence on the water consumption of GDP in Jiangsu Province, among which the per capita water resource quantity is the most significant.
【学位授予单位】：扬州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV213.4

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