基于CGE模型的水资源定价机制对农业经济的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-01 18:08

本文关键词： 水资源定价机制农业经济水资源供需变化 CGE模型政策分析　出处：《中国地质大学(北京)》2015年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国分散化的水资源管理体系形成了水资源的平行定价机制(简称“传统机制”),体现在农业部门的灌溉水价与非农部门的管道水价为平行定价,由于灌溉水价中包含有灌溉补贴,使灌溉水价与管道水价出现了显著的价格扭曲,从而导致水资源在农业部门和非农部门之间的低效率分配。面临着水资源需求增加和供应减少的双重压力,中国已经启动水资源统一定价机制的改革。本研究立足于农业经济,运用CGE模型在水资源供需变动的模拟情景中对不同的水资源定价机制进行评估,旨在解决当前的水资源配置问题并为推进水资源定价机制改革提供政策依据,主要的研究成果和创新点如下：首先,基于不同定价机制的特征构建了三个社会核算矩阵(SAM):SAM-WPP、 SAM-WP和SAM-16R。相对前人研究的主要创新是：在SAM-WPP和SAM-WP中细分出了10个种植业部门的灌溉水及其灌溉补贴,并在SAM-16R中将灌溉水及其灌溉补贴分别扩展为16地区。以这三个SAM为数据基础构建了四个CGE模型：引入传统机制的CGE-WPP、引入当前机制(即当前改革的统一定价机制)的CGE-WP_A、引入新机制(即进一步改革的统一定价机制)的CGE-WP_B,以及基于传统机制和区域性水资源模块的CGE-16R。CGE-WPP、CGE-WP_A和CGE-WP_B是宏观模型。主要扩展是在10个种植业部门生产函数结构中引入灌溉水投入及其灌溉补贴；在非种植农业、建筑业、工业和服务业等24个部门生产函数结构中引入富有价格弹性的水资源投入。在CGE-WPP的基础上构建CGE-16R,是将这10个种植业部门生产函数结构中的灌溉水投入及其灌溉补贴均扩展为16地区,同时将农村居民管道水消费也扩展为16地区。其次,应用这四个CGE模型,水资源供需变化的模拟论证了新机制对于农业经济是最优的政策选择：水资源需求增加的情景下,新机制将为农业生产配置更多的水,从而使农业部门的本地商品供给有所增加；水资源供应减少的情景下,新机制使农村居民的收入增长最高同时消费下降最少。传统机制下的区域性水资源供应不足使种植业减产主要在北方地区,但遭受消费减少尤其是食品消费减少的农村居民在南北方均有分布。政策建议是：取消灌溉水价中的灌溉补贴,将灌溉补贴转移到农产品价格中由消费者负担从而减轻农民生产负担；在水资源需求增加的背景下,改革的短期内要考虑农村居民收入和消费增长受限问题给予一定的补贴；在水资源供应不足的背景下,为降低农产品供应减少的负面影响,应增加农产品进口,加快推广节水灌溉技术和节水作物种植。
[Abstract]:China's decentralized water resources management system has formed a parallel pricing mechanism for water resources (referred to as "the traditional mechanism" for short), which is reflected in the parallel pricing of irrigation water prices in the agricultural sector and pipeline water prices in the non-agricultural sector. Because irrigation subsidies are included in irrigation water prices, there is a significant price distortion between irrigation water prices and pipeline water prices. This has led to inefficient allocation of water resources between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. Faced with the double pressures of increasing demand for water resources and decreasing supply, China has initiated a reform of the unified pricing mechanism for water resources. This study is based on the agricultural economy. In order to solve the problem of water resources allocation and to provide policy basis for the reform of water resources pricing mechanism, CGE model is used to evaluate different water resources pricing mechanisms in the simulated scenarios of water resources supply and demand change. The main research results and innovations are as follows: first of all, Based on the characteristics of different pricing mechanisms, three social accounting matrices, SAM: SAM-WPP, SAM-WP and SAM-16R. the main innovations compared with previous studies are as follows: the irrigation water and irrigation subsidies in 10 planting sectors were subdivided in SAM-WPP and SAM-WP. In SAM-16R, irrigation water and irrigation subsidy are extended to 16 regions respectively. Based on these three SAM, four CGE models are constructed: CGE-WPPbased on traditional mechanism and current mechanism (that is, unified pricing mechanism of current reform). The CGE-WPPBs of the new mechanism (that is, the unified pricing mechanism for further reform), and the CGE-16R.CGE-WPPN CGE-WPPPA and CGE-WP_B based on the traditional mechanism and the regional water resources module are macro models. The main extension is the production function structure in 10 planting sectors. Introduction of irrigation water input and irrigation subsidy; In non-farming, construction, Water resources input with price elasticity is introduced into the production function structure of 24 departments, such as industry and service industry. CGE-16R is constructed on the basis of CGE-WPP, which is the irrigation water input and its irrigation supplement in the production function structure of these 10 farming sectors. The patch was extended to 16 areas, At the same time, the pipeline water consumption of rural residents is also extended to 16 regions. Secondly, using the four CGE models, the simulation of the change of water supply and demand proves that the new mechanism is the best policy choice for agricultural economy: under the situation of increasing demand for water resources, The new mechanism will allocate more water to agricultural production, thereby increasing the supply of local commodities in the agricultural sector; in the case of reduced water supply, The new mechanism makes the income of rural residents grow the highest and the consumption decrease the least. The shortage of regional water resources under the traditional mechanism results in the reduction of crop production mainly in the northern region. But rural residents who suffer from reduced consumption, especially food consumption, are spread across the North and South. The policy advice is to eliminate irrigation subsidies in irrigation water prices. Under the background of increasing demand for water resources, limited income and consumption growth of rural residents should be considered in the short term. Under the background of insufficient water supply, in order to reduce the negative effect of the decrease of agricultural product supply, we should increase the import of agricultural products, speed up the popularization of water-saving irrigation technology and plant water-saving crops.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TV213.4

【相似文献】