土石坝施工与运行风险综合评价

发布时间：2018-03-02 04:38

本文关键词： 土石坝风险识别漫坝突变评价标准　出处：《郑州大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：土石坝施工期为风险事件高发期,导致工程建设目标的协同管理存在较大困难,其运行期潜在发生的事故也对下游人民群众的生命、财产安全造成了一定威胁。对不同阶段风险的正确认识和合理评价是大坝设计、施工与运行管理的基础,而目前关于土石坝施工和运行阶段的风险分析与评价尚存在明显不足。因此,本文在国家自然科学基金面上项目(51379192)、郑州大学水利与环境学院优秀博士论文培育基金的资助下,进行土石坝施工与运行风险综合评价研究,主要工作和成果如下:(1)土石坝施工期风险因子动态识别。基于霍尔三维结构理论,在研究土石坝施工期风险形成路径的基础上,根据施工阶段的划分,采用WBS-RBS矩阵从知识维、逻辑维和时间维三个角度构建土石坝施工期风险动态评价指标体系;引入logistic回归分析理论,作为专家经验的有效补充,主客观相结合进行风险因子相对重要性排序。(2)土石坝施工期漫坝风险动态分析。在分析影响土石坝施工期漫坝风险的上游来水、导流建筑物泄流能力和挡水建筑物顶部高程等关键因素不确定性基础上,基于Monte-Carlo方法模拟水文、水力和施工进度,建立了土石坝施工期漫坝风险动态分析模型,揭示相关因素不确定性对于土石坝施工期漫坝风险的影响特性。(3)土石坝施工期多目标风险分析。采用S型曲线分布作为拟合函数,将常规突变评价值映射到底层指标隶属度上得到改进的突变评价值,解决常规突变评价法存在的突变评价值过高、优劣方案的突变评价值过于接近的问题。将改进的方法应用于土石坝施工期安全、质量、进度和成本等多目标风险分析,分析结果更具客观性的同时也更为清晰。(4)土石坝运行期风险评价。结合国内水库大坝安全现状及其他行业已有风险标准,考虑经济、社会发展水平及群众对于风险接受意愿,对风险标准相关参数的选取进行针对性地分析论证,采用ALARP准则和F-N曲线构建与现行安全标准有效衔接的中国水库大坝风险标准,可有效评价土石坝运行期各种工况下的风险水平。
[Abstract]:The construction period of earth-rock dam is a period of high risk events, which leads to great difficulties in cooperative management of engineering construction objectives, and the potential accidents occurring during its operation period are also of great importance to the lives of the people in the lower reaches. The correct understanding and reasonable evaluation of the risk in different stages are the basis of dam design, construction and operation management. However, the risk analysis and evaluation of earth-rock dam in construction and operation stage are obviously insufficient. Therefore, this paper is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation project No. 513791922, and the excellent doctoral thesis cultivation Fund of the School of Water Conservancy and Environment, Zhengzhou University. The main work and results are as follows: 1) dynamic identification of risk factors during earth-rock dam construction. Based on Hall's three-dimensional structure theory, the risk formation path of earth-rock dam during construction period is studied. According to the division of construction stage, WBS-RBS matrix is used to construct dynamic evaluation index system of earth-rock dam risk during construction period from three angles: knowledge dimension, logic dimension and time dimension, and logistic regression analysis theory is introduced as an effective supplement to expert experience. Combining subjective and objective factors, the relative importance of risk factors is ranked. 2) dynamic analysis of overrun risk during earth-rock dam construction. Based on the uncertainty of key factors, such as discharge capacity of diversion buildings and top elevation of retaining structures, a dynamic risk analysis model for embankment dam during construction period is established based on the simulation of hydrology, hydraulics and construction schedule by Monte-Carlo method. This paper reveals the influence of uncertainty of related factors on the risk of embankment during the construction of earth-rock dam. (3) Multi-objective risk analysis of earth-rock dam during construction. The S-curve distribution is used as the fitting function. The conventional catastrophe evaluation value is mapped to the improved mutation evaluation value on the subordinate degree of the underlying index, which solves the problem that the mutation evaluation value of the conventional mutation evaluation method is too high. The improved method is applied to multi-objective risk analysis, such as safety, quality, schedule and cost of earth-rock dam during construction. The results of the analysis are more objective and clear. 4) risk assessment of earth-rock dams during operation. Considering the present situation of dam safety in domestic reservoirs and the existing risk standards in other industries, considering the economic, social development level and the willingness of the masses to accept risks, The selection of the relevant parameters of the risk standard is analyzed and demonstrated, and the ALARP criterion and F-N curve are used to construct the Chinese reservoir dam risk standard which is effectively connected with the current safety standards. It can effectively evaluate the risk level of earth-rock dam under various operating conditions.
【学位授予单位】：郑州大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TV641

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