桓仁水库后汛二期防洪预报调度方式研究

发布时间：2018-03-02 05:09

本文关键词： 洪水预报 24h降水预报预报调度调度规则洪水资源化　出处：《大连理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：降水量的时空分布不均决定了水资源分布不均。我国北方降水集中于汛期,汛后降水稀少,导致北方水资源供需矛盾十分突出。现行的水库洪水实时调度中,通常受设计的汛限水位约束,采用设计的常规调度方式及其规则,以实时入库流量和库水位作为识别洪水量级和控制泄量的依据,导致许多北方水库汛期弃水过多,汛后又无足够来水使水库蓄至兴利蓄水位,洪水资源浪费十分可惜。后汛期作为从汛期到非汛期过渡阶段,其洪水运用方式不仅关系到该阶段的防洪与兴利效益,而且关系到汛后水库的正常运行,进而影响水库全年的经济效益。研究后汛期水库的防洪预报调度方式,对于提高水库该时期乃至汛后的洪水资源利用率,更好的发挥其综合效益具有十分重要的意义。目前,洪水预报信息和短期降水预报信息精度已经达到可以用于指导水库实时调度的水平。基于防洪预报调度理论与方法,根据我国北方地区分期洪水特点,本文通过考虑洪水预报信息和未来24h降水预报信息,研究桓仁水库后汛二期(该水库汛期最后一个阶段)的防洪预报调度方式,以期在不降低水库原设计防洪标准的前提下,提高水库的发电效益,实现水库后汛二期洪水资源和水能资源的安全高效利用。具体研究内容与成果如下： (1)本文产流预报方案采用降雨径流相关图,汇流预报方案采用单位线法,对1966～2010年后汛二期20场洪水进行了预报并对洪水预报精度和预报误差分布情况进行了分析。采用确定性系数和RB(相对误差)对洪水的预报结果进行了评价,依据《水文情报预报规范》(GB/T22482-2008)对预报水平进行了评定。洪水预报精度为甲级,同时分析结果表明,洪水预报误差不会导致水库越级泄流。这为水库利用洪水预报信息制定防洪预报调度规则提供了前提条件。 (2)以桓仁水库以上流域为研究区域,根据气象部门制定的降雨量级分类标准以及预报精度分析方法,对1999～2010年后汛二期未来24h降水预报信息以及实测日降水量资料进行了统计,分析了未来24h降水预报信息的精度和不同预报量级情况下实测日降水量频率分布情况。分析结果表明,该时期未来24h降水预报信息具有较高的精度,为水库后汛二期利用未来24h降水预报信息制定防洪预报调度规则提供了依据。 (3)在前文对洪水预报信息和未来24h降水预报信息可利用性分析的基础上,对预报信息出现误报时水库的防洪风险及蓄水风险进行了分析。根据桓仁流域后汛二期水文气象特征,研究利用洪水预报信息和未来24h降水预报信息制定相应的防洪预报调度规则(洪水运用方法),通过设计洪水和实际洪水对规则进行了检验。结果表明,所制定的调度规则与原设计相比,前者在不降低水库防洪标准的前提下,发电量增加,弃水量减少,可以实现水能资源和洪水资源的高效利用。最后对全文进行总结,并对有待进一步研究的问题进行了展望。
[Abstract]:The temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation was not all of the uneven distribution of water resources. The precipitation in China is concentrated in the flood season, flood season precipitation, resulting in the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in the north is very prominent. Reservoir real time flood dispatching in the flood control level are usually subject to design constraints, using conventional scheduling methods and design rules in real time the runoff and water level as recognition of flood magnitude and discharge control basis, leading to excessive many northern abandoned water reservoir in flood season, flood and water storage reservoir to make sufficient Hennessy water level and flood resources waste is a pity. After the flood season from the flood season to non flood season as a transitional stage, the use of not only the flood to the stage of flood control and benefits, but also related to the normal operation of the reservoir after flood, thereby affecting the annual economic benefits. The research of reservoir flood forecasting and dispatching party after the flood, for Improve the utilization of flood resources in the reservoir during and after flood season, better play to the comprehensive benefit is very important. At present, flood forecast information and short-term precipitation forecast information accuracy has been achieved can be used for real-time scheduling reservoir level. Based on the theory and method of flood forecasting and dispatching, according to the North China stage flood characteristics. By considering the information of flood forecast and precipitation forecast of future 24h information, after two period of Huanren reservoir flood (the flood last stage) the flood forecasting and dispatching mode, in order to reduce not the original design standard of flood control reservoir, improve the generation efficiency of the reservoir, to achieve efficient use of reservoir after Flood flood period two resources and water resources safety. The specific research contents and results are as follows:
(1) the runoff forecasting scheme using rainfall runoff correlation map, confluence forecasting scheme by unit line method, for 1966~2010 years after the flood of two 20 flood forecast and flood forecast accuracy and prediction error distribution is analyzed. The uncertainty coefficients and RB (relative error) of flood forecasting results the basis of hydrological forecast evaluation, < > specification (GB/T22482-2008) to forecast the level was evaluated. The precision of flood forecast for a while, the analysis results show that the flood forecast error does not result in reservoir discharge. The leapfrog reservoir flood forecast information provides the precondition of making flood forecasting and dispatching rules.
(2) in the Huanren reservoir basin as the research area, according to rainfall classification standard meteorological departments to develop and forecast accuracy analysis method, 1999~2010 years after the flood of two future 24h precipitation forecast information and measured daily precipitation data by statistical analysis of future 24h precipitation forecast precision and forecast magnitude under different the measured frequency distribution of daily precipitation. Analysis results show that the period of future 24h precipitation forecast information has high precision for Flood Reservoir after two period by future 24h precipitation forecast information to develop flood forecasting and dispatching rule provides the basis.
(3) in the preamble to the flood forecast information and the future of 24h precipitation forecast information available based on the analysis of the forecast information, false positives when the reservoir water storage and flood risk risk are analyzed. According to the characteristics of Huanren basin flood hydrology and meteorology two, using flood forecast and precipitation forecast information for future 24h information set flood forecasting and dispatching rules (corresponding flood, by using the method of design flood) and the actual flood of rules were tested. The results show that the scheduling rule is compared with the original design, the former in the premise of reducing flood control standards, power generation increased, waste water decreased, can realize the efficient utilization of water resources and flood resources.
Finally, the full text is summarized, and the problems to be further studied are prospected.

【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV697.13;P338

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