社会选择理论在流域跨界水资源配置冲突决策问题中的应用

发布时间：2018-03-02 11:05

本文关键词： 社会选择理论水资源冲突水量分配破产准则偏好聚合　出处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文将社会选择理论引入到流域跨界水资源配置冲突的解决研究中,从群决策的角度寻找到流域内各区域一致同意的、满足水量分配公平的流域水资源配置方案。流域水资源配置冲突问题从表面上看是资源问题,实质上却是一个典型的决策问题。作为一种具有混合特性和稀缺性的自然资源,流域稀缺水资源的分配实质上是多主体参与的涉水利益分配,而分配的核心问题是如何通过合理的群决策机制协调水资源配置冲突中不同行政区域之间的利益关系进而实现公平。本文提出基于社会选择理论的流域跨界水资源配置冲突解决框架,首先从公平性角度将流域水资源配置冲突看成一个短缺资源的配置问题,利用P、AP、CEA和CEL四种破产准则获取可行的水量分配方案集合;其次运用社会选择理论中的PV、BC、HQ、PCM和FB五种偏好聚合方法进行流域内各行政区域个体偏好聚合的群决策分析;通过破产准则与偏好聚合的结合能够实现流域水资源配置冲突群决策结果的公平,所得流域水量分配方案易于被冲突主体所接受。最后,以华北缺水地区的漳河流域跨界水资源配置冲突问题为例进行研究,并比较不同破产准则及偏好聚合方法在解决流域跨界水资源配置冲突中的应用。研究结果表明,社会选择理论与破产准则的结合在解决流域跨界水资源配置冲突问题中具有较高的实用价值。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the theory of social choice is introduced into the study of conflict resolution of transboundary water resources allocation in river basins. From the point of view of group decision, the consensus of each region in the basin is found. The conflict problem of watershed water resources allocation is a resource problem on the surface, but it is a typical decision problem in essence. As a kind of natural resources with mixed characteristics and scarcity, The allocation of scarce water resources in watersheds is essentially a multi-subject participation in the distribution of water interests. The core problem of allocation is how to coordinate the interests of different administrative regions in the conflict of water resources allocation through a reasonable group decision mechanism. This paper puts forward the theory of social choice based on the river basin transboundary water resources. Source configuration conflict resolution framework, Firstly, the conflict of water resources allocation is regarded as a problem of allocation of scarce resources from the point of view of equity, and a feasible set of water allocation schemes is obtained by using the four bankruptcy criteria of PAPCEA and CEL. Secondly, the cluster decision analysis of individual preference aggregation in each administrative region of river basin is carried out by using the five preference aggregation methods of PVBCU HQ PCM and FB in social choice theory. Through the combination of bankruptcy criteria and preference aggregation, we can realize the fairness of the decision results of conflict groups of water resources allocation in watershed, and the resulting watershed water allocation schemes are easily accepted by the conflicting parties. Finally, Taking the conflict of transboundary water resources allocation in the Zhangzhou River Basin in North China as an example, the application of different bankruptcy criteria and preference aggregation methods in resolving the conflict of transboundary water resources allocation in the basin is compared. The combination of social choice theory and bankruptcy criterion is of great practical value in solving the conflict of transboundary water resources allocation in river basins.
【作者单位】：江苏大学管理学院;河海大学管理科学研究所;国电环境保护研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金重点项目“变化环境下水资源冲突管理研究”(批准号:71433003);国家自然科学基金青年项目“基于不同偏好类型下图模型的水资源冲突研究”(批准号:71603116) 国家社会科学基金青年项目“多尺度耦合下水生态系统服务价值测度及政策路径选择研究”(批准号:14CGL030) 教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目“流域初始二维水权合作定价机制及建模研究”(批准号:20130094120022)
【分类号】：TV213.4

【相似文献】