基于系统动力学的佳木斯市水资源优化配置仿真研究

发布时间：2018-03-04 06:13

本文选题：水资源　切入点：系统动力学　出处：《东北农业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：佳木斯市地处三江平原腹地,具有水资源丰富、土地肥沃、气候适宜等优越的自然条件,是我国重要的粮食生产基地,对保障国家粮食安全具有重要作用。但近年来,佳木斯市水资源在开发利用过程中表现出供水结构不够合理、水资源浪费严重、水资源开发利用程度较低、水资源供需不平衡及污水处理能力较低等现象,严重影响了佳木斯市水资源的可持续高效利用,进而制约了佳木斯市社会经济的稳定发展。本文通过对佳木斯市水资源的系统结构、系统内部各变量之间因果关系及水资源的开发利用现状的分析,从水资源-社会-经济-生态复杂系统入手,以可持续发展观为指导思想,以佳木斯市为研究区域,以实现水资源可持续利用为主要目标,利用系统动力学知识,建立佳木斯市水资源可持续利用系统动力学仿真模型。模型分为水资源供需子系统、社会需水子系统、工业需水子系统、农业需水子系统、生态需水子系统和经济子系统6个子系统,共包含67个变量。为了确定模型的准确性和可靠性,本文从模型的直观运行检验、历史检验和灵敏度分析三个方面对模型的有效性进行了检验。结果表明,所建模型的量纲统一、结构合理、能够比较真实的反映出系统的运行情况。通过对模型的灵敏度分析,确定了8个对模型运行结果影响较大的敏感参数,为佳木斯市水资源优化配置方案的设计提供参数支持。利用佳木斯市水资源可持续利用系统动力学仿真模型,对水资源的供需结构、供水结构和需水结构分别进行现状延续情况下的动态仿真,分析仿真结果得知,佳木斯市水资源在未来的开发利用中,水资源供需矛盾不但没有得到缓解,反而日益严重,这将严重制约了佳木斯市工农业生产和发展。针对佳木斯市水资源现存的和即将出现的问题,结合对敏感参数的分析和调控,设计了现状延续方案、治污开源方案、限采节流方案和综合协调方案4个水资源优化配置方案。通过分析4种方案的动态仿真结果得知：现状延续方案、治污开源方案和限采节流方案下的水资源短缺的问题没有及时得到解决,依然会束缚佳木斯市的工农业生产和社会经济发展；综合协调方案不仅从近期规划水平年2015年开始实现了水资源供需动态平衡,而且也保证了社会经济的快速发展。最终确定综合协调方案为佳木斯市水资源可持续利用的最优方案,为佳木斯市水资源可持续利用政策的调整提供了理论支持和政策参考。
[Abstract]:Jiamusi City is located in the hinterland of Sanjiang Plain, with abundant water resources, fertile land, suitable climate and other favorable natural conditions. Jiamusi is an important food production base in China, which plays an important role in ensuring national food security. In the process of development and utilization of water resources in Jiamusi, the water supply structure is unreasonable, the waste of water resources is serious, the degree of water resources exploitation and utilization is low, the supply and demand of water resources is unbalanced and the capacity of sewage treatment is low, etc. It seriously affects the sustainable and efficient utilization of water resources in Jiamusi, and then restricts the stable development of social economy in Jiamusi. Based on the analysis of the system structure of water resources in Jiamusi, the causality among the variables in the system and the current situation of water resources exploitation and utilization, the paper starts with the complex system of water resources, society, economy and ecology. Taking the concept of sustainable development as the guiding ideology, taking Jiamusi city as the research area, taking the realization of sustainable utilization of water resources as the main goal and utilizing the knowledge of system dynamics, The dynamic simulation model of water resources sustainable utilization system in Jiamusi is established. The model is divided into water supply and demand subsystem, social water demand subsystem, industrial water demand subsystem, agricultural water demand subsystem. Ecological water demand subsystem and economic subsystem include 6 subsystems, including 67 variables. In order to determine the veracity and reliability of the model, this paper tests the validity of the model from three aspects: visual operation test, historical test and sensitivity analysis. The results show that the dimension of the model is uniform and the structure is reasonable. Through the sensitivity analysis of the model, 8 sensitive parameters which have a great influence on the model operation results are determined, which can provide parameter support for the design of water resources optimal allocation scheme in Jiamusi city. By using the dynamic simulation model of water resources sustainable utilization system in Jiamusi, the dynamic simulation of water supply and demand structure, water supply structure and water demand structure are carried out respectively under the condition of current situation continuation, and the result of analysis and simulation shows that, In the future development and utilization of water resources in Jiamusi, the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources has not been alleviated, on the contrary, it has become increasingly serious. This will seriously restrict the production and development of industry and agriculture in Jiamusi City. In view of the existing and upcoming problems of water resources in Jiamusi City, combined with the analysis and regulation of sensitive parameters, we have designed a plan to continue the status quo and open source pollution control programs. There are four optimal allocation schemes of water resources for the limited production and throttling scheme and the integrated coordination scheme. By analyzing the dynamic simulation results of the four schemes, it is known that the problems of water resources shortage under the current situation continuation scheme, the pollution control open source scheme and the limited mining and throttling scheme have not been solved in time. It will still constrain the industrial and agricultural production and socio-economic development of Jiamusi. The comprehensive and coordinated program has not only achieved a dynamic balance between supply and demand of water resources starting from 2015, the year of the recent planning level, It also ensures the rapid development of social economy. Finally, it is determined that the integrated coordination scheme is the optimal scheme for the sustainable utilization of water resources in Jiamusi, and provides theoretical support and policy reference for the adjustment of sustainable utilization policy of water resources in Jiamusi.
【学位授予单位】：东北农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV213.4

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