中国三次产业生产用水消耗的时空演绎分解--基于LMDI-I模型的经验分析

发布时间：2018-03-04 12:21

本文选题：生产用水　切入点：时空演绎　出处：基于LMDI-I模型的经验分析　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文借鉴Kaya恒等式,并应用LMDI-I分解模型,分析驱动中国2003-2014年三大产业生产用水消耗的人口效应、经济水平效应和用水效率效应的时空演绎特征。研究发现,人口效应是抑制第一产业和促进第二产业以及第三产业生产用水消耗的主要因素之一,同时经济水平效应对三大产业生产用水消耗主要表现为正向促进效应,而用水效率效应则主要表现为负向抑制效应。每个省区的从业人员变动、经济水平变动和用水效率变动共同决定了全国生产用水消耗的变动,在当前特定情况下,地区生产用水消耗的下降与全国生产用水消耗下降存在不一致性,因此,为了顺利实现全国水资源节约的整体目标,需要及时评估各省区对全国水资源节约的贡献度,准确把握中国生产用水消耗的空间分布特征,重点关注那些对生产用水消耗影响较为关键的省区,以尽快实现对水资源消耗总量的有效控制。
[Abstract]:Based on the Kaya identity and the LMDI-I decomposition model, this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial deductive characteristics of the population effect, economic level effect and water use efficiency effect that drive the production water consumption of the three major industries in China from 2003 to 2014. Population effect is one of the main factors to restrain the consumption of water for production in the primary industry and promote the consumption of water in the production of the secondary industry and the third industry. At the same time, the effect of economic level on the consumption of water for production in the three major industries is mainly positive promoting effect. However, the effect of water use efficiency is mainly negative inhibition effect. The changes of employees, economic level and water use efficiency in each province and district jointly determine the change of water consumption in production in the whole country. The decrease of regional production water consumption is inconsistent with the decrease of national production water consumption. Therefore, in order to smoothly realize the overall goal of national water resources conservation, it is necessary to evaluate the contribution of provinces and districts to the national water resources conservation in a timely manner. The spatial distribution characteristics of water consumption for production in China are accurately grasped, and the provinces and regions which have a more critical impact on the consumption of water for production are focused on so as to realize the effective control of the total consumption of water resources as soon as possible.
【作者单位】：东南大学经济管理学院;南京审计大学经济与贸易学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重点项目“新常态下我国雾霾防治模式与机制研究”(项目编号:15AJY009) 国家自然科学基金项目“环境规制对就业的影响:理论实证与对策研究”(项目编号:71573136) 江苏省社会科学基金重大项目“‘后青奥’江苏大气污染防治研究”(项目编号:14ZD011) 江苏省社科基金重点项目“江苏绿色、低碳、循环经济研究”(项目编号:14EYA003)
【分类号】：TV213.4

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