基于量化和谐论与综合指数评价法的苏里格经济开发区水资源可持续利用研究

发布时间：2018-03-05 00:31

本文选题：量化和谐(?)　切入点：水资源　出处：《内蒙古农业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文以苏里格经济开发区为研究对象,以水资源可持续利用评价理论体系为依据,应用PSR概念模式建立了基于“人水和谐”量化指标体系,选取综合指数评价法对苏里格经济开发区2001—-2010年的和谐度进行分析计算和评价；利用量化和谐论对苏里格经济开发区2011-2016年水资源可持续利用和谐度进行了预测分析。结果表明： 1.在整个指标体系中,“人均水资源量”和“城镇居民人均综合生活用水量”的和谐度一直处于0.2以下,为很不和谐状态,表明“人均水资源量”和“城镇居民人均综合生活用水量”是影响区域水资源可持续利用的最大因素；“河流污染百分比”和谐度出现大幅度下降趋势,从2001年的0.62下降到2010年的0.32,说明“河流污染百分比”是影响区域可持续水管理的不利因素。 2.水资源与社会经济系统和谐度HS一直处于最高水平,和谐度数值在0.5以上且逐年上升,说明其对苏里格经济开发区水资源可持续利用的综合和谐度WH有最大的促进作用。水资源与利用保障系统和谐度HU始终处于0.45以下,表明对区域水资源可持续利用有较大的制约作用。水资源与环境生态系统和谐度HE出现不稳定的变化趋势,在2002年和谐度处于较低水平为0.30,而在2006年上升到较大数值0.50,由此看出水资源与环境生态系统是影响区域可持续水管理的敏感层次和脆弱系统。 3.总体来看,苏里格经济开发区综合和谐度WH在历年中呈现整体缓慢上升趋势,从2001年的0.36上升到2010年的0.52,而在2002年小幅度下降为0.34,整体为一般和谐状态。这表明苏里格经济开发区在经济发展较强的同时,能够缓解区域水生态环境恶化的进程和降低区域水资源过度开发利用的力度,不断提高水资源可持续利用率。 4.由预测分析可知,苏里格经济开发区水资源可持续利用和谐度HD在未来总体上处于较不和谐状态,但是区域水资源利用矛盾并非十分剧烈,即水资源供需矛盾可以通过有效调节得到解决。从变化趋势来看,2013年到2014年苏里格经济开发区和谐度大幅度下降,表明未来进驻园区正式投产的工业项目数量不断增加,生活用水和生产用水量急剧增加,而园区可供水量不能满足用水量。 5.从2014年以后和谐度一直趋于较低水平,均处于0.5以下,这说明苏里格经济开发区生活生产用水量与可供水量之间矛盾日益增大。因此有效提高用水效率、工业用水重复使用率和再生水回用率,同时对苏里格经济开发区进行产业结构调整是实现苏里格经济开发区水资源可持续利用的关键,也是今后苏里格经济开发区工业经济又好又快发展和实现水资源可持续利用的重要保障。
[Abstract]:This paper takes Sulige Economic Development Zone as the research object, takes the water resources sustainable utilization evaluation theory system as the basis, applies the PSR concept pattern to establish the quantitative index system based on the "human water harmony". The comprehensive index evaluation method is selected to analyze and evaluate the harmony degree of Sulige Economic Development Zone from 2001 to 2010, and the sustainable utilization harmony degree of water resources in Sulige Economic Development Zone from 2011 to 2016 is predicted and analyzed by using the quantitative Harmony Theory. The results show that:. 1. In the whole indicator system, the harmony degree of "per capita water resources" and "urban residents' per capita comprehensive domestic water consumption" has been below 0.2, which is a very disharmonious state. The results show that "per capita water resources" and "urban residents' per capita comprehensive domestic water consumption" are the most important factors affecting the sustainable utilization of regional water resources, and the harmonious degree of "river pollution percentage" has a downward trend. The decrease from 0.62 in 2001 to 0.32 in 2010 shows that the "percentage of river pollution" is the unfavorable factor affecting regional sustainable water management. 2. The HS of water resources and socio-economic system has always been at the highest level, and the degree of harmony is more than 0.5 and increases year by year. It shows that the comprehensive harmony degree WH of Sulige economic development zone has the greatest promotion effect. The harmony degree of water resources and utilization guarantee system Hu is always below 0.45. The results show that there is a great restriction on the sustainable utilization of regional water resources, and the degree of harmony between water resources and environmental ecosystems is unstable. In 2002, the degree of harmony was at a low level of 0.30, but in 2006 it rose to a larger value of 0.50, which shows that water resources and environmental ecosystems are sensitive and fragile systems affecting regional sustainable water management. 3. Overall, the overall degree of harmony WH of Sulige Economic Development Zone has shown a slow upward trend in the past years. It rose from 0.36 in 2001 to 0.52 in 2010, and decreased to 0.34 in 2002, which indicates that Sulige Economic Development Zone has a strong economic development at the same time. It can alleviate the process of regional water ecological environment deterioration and reduce the intensity of over-exploitation and utilization of regional water resources, and continuously improve the sustainable utilization rate of water resources. 4. From the forecast and analysis, we can see that the harmonious degree of sustainable utilization of water resources in Sulige Economic Development Zone is generally in a disharmonious state in the future, but the contradiction of regional water resources utilization is not very intense. That is, the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources can be solved through effective adjustment. From the trend of change, the harmony degree of Sulige Economic Development Zone declined significantly from 2013 to 2014, indicating that the number of industrial projects formally put into production in the park will continue to increase in the future. Domestic water and production water consumption increased sharply, but the available water supply in the park could not meet the water consumption. 5. Since 2014, the degree of harmony has tended to be lower, all below 0.5, which indicates that the contradiction between water consumption and available water supply in Sulige Economic Development Zone is increasing day by day. Therefore, the efficiency of water use is improved effectively. The reuse rate of industrial water and the reuse rate of reclaimed water, and the adjustment of the industrial structure of Sulige Economic Development Zone are the key to realize the sustainable utilization of water resources in Sulige Economic Development Zone. It is also an important guarantee for the development and sustainable utilization of water resources in Sulige Economic Development Zone.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV213.4

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