水量分配方案后评价指标体系及方法研究

发布时间：2018-03-13 03:24

本文选题：水量分配　切入点：后评价　出处：《武汉大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：水量分配方案后评价对总结方案经验教训,促进方案的实施和修正改进具有十分重要的意义。由于目前国内针对水量分配方案的评价多集中在方案的实施效果上,缺乏对方案本身及其实施过程的评价,且评价方法繁琐,主观性较强,为此本文针对水量分配方案后评价作了如下研究:(1)评述论文的研究背景和研究意义,查阅文献总结水量分配方案后评价指标体系及评价方法的研究现状,得出本文的研究内容和技术路线。(2)对评价对象水量分配方案进行研究,在分析评述水量分配概念、目标、基本原则及分配要素的基础上,总结水量分配方案制定及其实施的具体过程。在此基础上,分析水量分配方案后评价的概念、目标与原则,并对后评价一般方法如对比分析法、逻辑框架法、层次分析法、模糊综合评价法等进行分析与总结。(3)在分析水量分配方案后评价特点的基础上,分析得出其指标体系确定的原则;然后通过对建设项目后评价指标体系与立法后评价指标体系的建立思路进行总结借鉴,从而得出水量分配方案后评价指标体系的层次和内容。采用Cronbach的一致性系数Alpha系数对指标体系进行信度分析,采用效度系数法对指标体系进行效度检验。最后,在对现有常用权重确定方法进行分析研究的基础上,采用ANP和熵值法结合的方法确定指标体系的权重。(4)在总结非负矩阵分解基本原理和基本特征的基础上,建立了基于非负矩阵分解原理的后评价模型,该方法利用非负矩阵分解算法将指标矩阵最大程度分解为基向量和权向量,根据权向量元素数值大小评价综合等级,根据基向量元素数值判断评价指标的实施状况。然后将熵权-ANP法与基于非负矩阵分解原理的后评价模型结合用于水量分配方案后评价。(5)运用本文建立的水量分配方案后评价指标体系与方法模型,对引滦水量分配方案进行后评价,后评价结果显示方案的综合评价等级为良,单项指标中来水可持续性、用水可持续性、与三条红线衔接性等指标评价结果较差,来水情景合理性、调度方案合理性、政策制度可持续性等指标评价结果则较好(6)对全文内容进行总结,对引滦水量分配方案的修正提出建议,并指出文章有待进一步解决的问题及下一步研究的方向。
[Abstract]:The post-evaluation of water allocation scheme is of great significance for summing up the experience and lessons of the scheme, promoting the implementation of the scheme and improving it. There is a lack of evaluation of the scheme itself and its implementation process, and the evaluation method is cumbersome and subjective. Therefore, this paper makes the following research on the post-evaluation of the water allocation scheme: 1) the research background and significance of the paper are reviewed. The current situation of the evaluation index system and evaluation method after water allocation scheme is summarized in the literature, and the research content and technical route of this paper are obtained. The water allocation scheme of the evaluation object is studied, and the concept and objective of water distribution are analyzed and commented. On the basis of basic principles and distribution elements, this paper summarizes the formulation of water allocation scheme and the concrete process of its implementation. On this basis, the concept, objectives and principles of post-evaluation of water distribution scheme are analyzed, and the general methods of post-evaluation, such as comparative analysis, are analyzed. Logical frame method, Analytic hierarchy process (AHP), Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation method, etc.) on the basis of analyzing the characteristics of post-evaluation of water allocation scheme, the principle of determining its index system is obtained. Then through the construction project post-evaluation index system and the legislation post-evaluation index system establishment train of thought to carry on the summary reference, The reliability of the index system is analyzed by the consistency coefficient Alpha coefficient of Cronbach, the validity coefficient method is used to test the validity of the index system. On the basis of analyzing and studying the existing methods of weight determination, the method of combining ANP and entropy method is used to determine the weight of index system. (4) on the basis of summing up the basic principle and characteristics of nonnegative matrix factorization, A post-evaluation model based on the principle of non-negative matrix decomposition is established. By using the non-negative matrix decomposition algorithm, the index matrix is decomposed to the maximum extent into the basis vector and the weight vector, and the comprehensive grade is evaluated according to the numerical value of the weight vector element. Then the entropy weight ANP method and the post-evaluation model based on the non-negative matrix factorization principle are combined to evaluate the water distribution scheme. 5) the water allocation established in this paper is used. The index system and method model of post-evaluation, The post-evaluation of Luan River water diversion allocation scheme shows that the comprehensive evaluation grade of the scheme is good, the sustainability of incoming water in single index, the sustainability of water use, and the link with three red lines are poor. The evaluation results of the indicators such as the rationality of the incoming water situation, the rationality of the dispatching scheme and the sustainability of the policy and system are better. (6) summing up the contents of the full text, and putting forward some suggestions for the revision of the water diversion scheme of Luan River. The paper also points out the problems to be solved and the direction of further research.
【学位授予单位】：武汉大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TV213.4

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