辽河多沙水库水沙联合调度方式研究

发布时间：2018-03-19 21:15

本文选题：淤积规律　切入点：泥沙预报　出处：《大连理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在多沙河流上修建水库,必然存在着泥沙淤积问题,水库淤积对水库本身库容损失及其下游河道过流能力和生态环境等方面的影响不容忽视。辽河是一条多泥沙河流,该流域水资源总量较少且时空分布不均,特别是中下游地区社会与经济的快速发展,加剧了水库防洪、排沙和水资源供给之间的矛盾。为满足人民生活和经济社会发展对水资源新的诉求,迫切需要开展新的水库调度方式及其相配套技术的研究,使得在提高水资源利用率的同时,保证水库上下游的防洪安全及其使用寿命。辽河流域年内降雨主要集中在汛期,来水来沙也主要集中在汛期的1-2场洪水,如果不能充分利用有限的洪水资源进行蓄水与排沙,那么防洪、排沙与兴利蓄水之间的矛盾将更显突出。针对这一问题,本文以辽河干流的石佛寺水库和支流柳河的闹德海水库为背景,展开水库水沙预报及水沙联合调控技术研究,以提高洪水资源利用量。主要研究内容及成果如下： (1)辽河多沙水库入库沙量的预报研究。首先分析石佛寺水库和闹德海水库的入库水沙特性；其次采用相关分析法对石佛寺水库入库站的水沙规律进行研究,建立石佛寺水库入库沙量预报的多元回归方程,对入库沙量进行模拟,为指导水库蓄水、排沙调度方案的研究提供依据；最后根据闹德海水库入库水沙特性分析结果,确定影响入库沙量的主要因素,建立了基于BP神经网络的闹德海水库入库沙量预测模型,模型模拟预测结果较好,可以指导水库实际调度。 (2)石佛寺水库库区水沙冲淤规律研究。首先利用趋势分析法对库区淤积的影响因子进行定性的分析,确定影响库区泥沙淤积的主要因素；然后根据石佛寺水库多年的水沙资料,采用灰色关联度分析法研究各影响因子对水库泥沙淤积的贡献率；最后以此为基础,研究建立基于BP神经网络的石佛寺水库库区泥沙淤积量预测模型,给出库区水沙冲淤规律,为制定水库水沙联合调度方案提供参考。 (3)考虑泥沙淤积的石佛寺水库调度规则研究。综合考虑水库防洪、排沙、供水和生态调度的要求,结合水库正式蓄水运用以来历年的水库调度方式和泥沙淤积情况,在石佛寺水库库区水沙冲淤规律和入库沙量分析结果的基础上,研究制定考虑水库泥沙淤积规律的调度方案,新的的调度方案能在保证防洪安全的前提下,考虑生态、排沙和供水的需求。该方案应用于2013年的水库实时调度中,取得了满意的综合利用效果。因此,新的调度方案可以尝试用于指导石佛寺水库实时调度。最后,对取得的研究成果进行总结,提出尚需研究的内容。
[Abstract]:To build a reservoir on a sandy river, there must be a problem of sediment deposition. The influence of reservoir siltation on reservoir capacity loss and downstream channel capacity and ecological environment should not be ignored. Liaohe River is a multi-sediment river. The total amount of water resources in this basin is small and the spatial and temporal distribution is uneven. Especially, the rapid development of society and economy in the middle and lower reaches of the basin has aggravated the flood control of reservoirs. In order to meet the new demand for water resources in people's life and economic and social development, it is urgent to carry out research on new reservoir operation mode and its matching technology, so as to improve the utilization rate of water resources. The flood control safety and service life of the upper and lower reaches of the reservoir are guaranteed. In the Liaohe River Basin, the rainfall is mainly concentrated in the flood season, and the coming water and sediment are mainly concentrated in 1-2 floods during the flood season. If the limited flood resources are not fully utilized for water storage and sediment discharge, So the contradiction between flood control, sand removal and Xingli water storage will become more prominent. In view of this problem, this paper takes Shifosi Reservoir of Liaohe River main stream and Naodehai Reservoir of Liuhe River as the background. In order to improve the utilization of flood resources, the research on reservoir water sediment prediction and combined regulation and control of water and sediment is carried out. The main contents and results are as follows:. First, the characteristics of water and sediment in Shifosi reservoir and Naodehai reservoir are analyzed, and then the correlation analysis method is used to study the regularity of water and sediment in Shifosi reservoir. The multivariate regression equation of sediment quantity prediction in Shifosi reservoir is established, and the sediment quantity is simulated to provide the basis for guiding the research of reservoir water storage and sediment discharge, and finally, according to the analysis results of water and sediment characteristics of Naodehai reservoir, Based on BP neural network, the prediction model of sediment quantity in Naodehai reservoir is established. The simulation result of the model is good, which can guide the actual operation of the reservoir. (2) study on the law of water and sediment scouring and silting in Shifosi reservoir area. Firstly, the influence factors of sediment accumulation in the reservoir area are qualitatively analyzed by using trend analysis method, and the main factors affecting sediment deposition in the reservoir area are determined, and then according to the water and sediment data of Shifosi reservoir for many years, In this paper, the contribution rate of influence factors to reservoir siltation is studied by means of grey correlation degree analysis. Finally, a prediction model of sediment deposition in Shifosi reservoir area based on BP neural network is established, and the rules of water and sediment scouring and silting in the reservoir area are given. It provides a reference for formulating the joint operation scheme of reservoir water and sediment. (3) study on regulation of Shifosi reservoir operation considering siltation. Considering comprehensively the requirements of reservoir flood control, sediment removal, water supply and ecological regulation, combined with the reservoir operation mode and silt deposition in the past years since the official storage and operation of the reservoir, On the basis of the law of water and sediment scouring and silting and the result of sediment quantity analysis in Shifosi reservoir area, this paper studies and formulates the regulation scheme of reservoir sediment deposition law. The new regulation scheme can consider ecology under the premise of ensuring flood control and safety. The application of this scheme to the reservoir real-time operation in 2013 has achieved a satisfactory comprehensive utilization effect. Therefore, the new scheme can be used to guide the real-time operation of Shifosi reservoir. Finally, the research results are summarized, and the contents that need to be studied are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV145

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