南水北调东线穿黄河工程技术风险研究

发布时间：2018-03-24 16:58

本文选题：穿黄河工程　切入点：技术风险　出处：《山东大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：本论文对穿黄河工程建设全过程风险评价与控制体系进行研究,从工程规划、设计、施工和运营中都进行工程技术风险分析与评价,其中包括设计风险、施工技术风险、运行风险、水文风险、社会风险等过程,全面分析穿黄河工程存在的技术风险及采取相应的对策措施。首先进行穿黄河工程的主要技术风险识别,分别对工程中的两项重点工程：土方工程与水工钢筋混凝土工程进行风险分析。土方工程的主要风险事故有：滑坡与塌方、流砂、地基扰动、土方填筑超标沉陷等；水工钢筋混凝土工程的主要风险事故有混凝土裂缝、衬砌混凝土裂缝防渗、钢筋连接方式、钢筋工程冬季施工、模板工程施工等。其次建立穿黄河工程技术风险分析综合评价模型,利用模糊数学的方法进行指标权重的量化,建立风险分析综合评价模型,确定工程的风险概率。通过建立项目风险评价指标体系,应用层次分析法确定项目风险指标权重,进行各个风险因素重要度排序,以对这些因素进行管理；其次利用模糊综合评判法进行系统总风险度的评价,从而做出项目决策。再次分析穿黄河工程主要构筑物(穿黄隧洞、滩地埋管、南干渠、出湖闸)的技术风险对风险应对措施,对比结构的布置与形式的选择风险,对各主要结构的风险源与风险事件进行重点分析：穿黄隧洞工程主要分析塌方与涌水风险；滩地埋管工程主要分析边坡开挖稳定性、地基不均匀沉陷、基坑开挖渗水风险；南干渠工程主要分析渗漏与渗透变形风险、渠道边坡稳定性风险,并结合蒙特卡罗模拟进行渠道边坡可靠性分析,分析得出边坡的安全系数和失效概率。最后,分别对穿黄河工程的运行、投资、招投标和合同风险进行简要分析,制定合理的管理方案与措施。在工程风险措施方面,重点研究工程保险在穿黄河工程中的应用,并分析穿黄河工程的保险方式。
[Abstract]:This paper studies the risk evaluation and control system in the whole process of the Yellow River project construction, including the design risk, the construction technology risk, the engineering technical risk analysis and the evaluation in the engineering planning, the design, the construction and the operation. In the process of operation risk, hydrological risk and social risk, the technical risk existing in the project of crossing the Yellow River is comprehensively analyzed and the corresponding countermeasures are taken. First of all, the main technical risk identification of the project through the Yellow River is carried out, and the risk analysis of two key projects in the project: earthwork and hydraulic reinforced concrete engineering are carried out respectively. The main risk accidents of the earthwork include landslide and collapse, flowing sand, and so on. The main risk accidents of hydraulic reinforced concrete engineering include concrete crack, lining concrete crack anti-seepage, steel bar connection way, reinforcement engineering winter construction, formwork construction and so on. Secondly, the comprehensive evaluation model of technical risk analysis is established, the index weight is quantified by using fuzzy mathematics, and the comprehensive evaluation model of risk analysis is established. Through the establishment of project risk evaluation index system, using AHP to determine the weight of project risk index, the importance of each risk factor is sorted to manage these factors. Secondly, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the total risk of the system and make the project decision. The technical risk of the main structures (tunnel, beach buried pipe, south trunk canal, lake gate) in the Yellow River crossing project is analyzed again, and the risk of risk response is analyzed, and the selection risk of the layout and form of the structure is compared. The risk sources and events of each main structure are analyzed emphatically: the tunnel project through the Yellow River mainly analyzes the risk of collapse and water gushing, the beach buried pipe project mainly analyzes the stability of slope excavation, the uneven settlement of foundation, and the risk of seepage in excavation of foundation pit. The risk of seepage and seepage deformation and the risk of channel slope stability are analyzed in the south trunk canal project. The reliability analysis of channel slope is carried out by Monte Carlo simulation. The safety factor and failure probability of the slope are analyzed. Finally, the operation, investment, bidding and contract risk of the Yellow River crossing project are briefly analyzed, and reasonable management schemes and measures are worked out. In the aspect of project risk measures, the application of engineering insurance in the project of crossing the Yellow River is mainly studied. And analyzes the safety mode of the Yellow River project.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV68;TV51

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