用水总量控制下行业配水权重不完全信息动态博弈

发布时间：2018-03-25 14:15

本文选题：配水权重　切入点：动态博弈　出处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2017年11期

【摘要】：流域水量的合理分配是实现流域水资源可持续利用的基础和前提,而行业配水权重是流域水资源分配的关键问题之一。博弈论借助于严谨的数学模型研究对策行为中利益冲突各方是否存在着最合理的行动方案,是找寻最合理行动方案的有效工具。基于不完全信息动态博弈理论,以广东省东江流域为例,研究了流域行业配水权重博弈过程及其最优解确定途径,并将基于用水总量控制的激励与惩罚机制引入至构建的行业配水权重博弈模型,以提高配水方案的可操作性。结果表明:(1)行业配水权重满足子博弈精炼Nash均衡目标的一阶条件可由水资源可利用量、河道内生态需水量、各行业需水量及其用水效益指标综合决定。(2)采用逆向归纳法求解东江流域初始行业配水权重博弈模型,2020年流域生活、工业、农业及和河道外生态环境配水权重系数分别为0.72、0.71、0.69和0.46,特枯来水年各行业相应配水量分别为20.2亿m~3、28.57亿m~3、33.61亿m~3和2.05亿m~3。配水结果较为客观合理,体现了行业用水的优先顺序。(3)用水总量控制指标下,明确配水的激励与惩罚额度是行业配水博弈的关键;通过用水的激励与惩罚机制,迫使各行业用水量在流域用水总量控制指标范围内重复博弈,增强行业节水积极性,提高用水效率,最终逐步实现各行业用水的个体理性和全流域水资源开发利用的集体理性相统一。研究结果有利于保障最严格水资源管理制度的有效实施,为变化环境下流域行业水量分配提供科学的决策依据。
[Abstract]:The rational allocation of watershed water resources is the basis and prerequisite for the sustainable utilization of water resources in river basins. The weight of water distribution in industry is one of the key problems in the allocation of water resources. Game theory uses rigorous mathematical models to study whether there is the most reasonable plan of action for the parties involved in the conflict of interest. Based on incomplete information dynamic game theory, taking Dongjiang river basin in Guangdong province as an example, the paper studies the process of water distribution weight game and its optimal solution. The incentive and punishment mechanism based on total water consumption control is introduced into the game model of water distribution weight. In order to improve the maneuverability of water distribution scheme, the result shows that the weight of water distribution in the industry meets the first order condition of Nash equilibrium goal of sub-game refining, which can be obtained from the available quantity of water resources and ecological water demand in river. The inverse induction method is used to solve the game model of water distribution weights in the initial industry of Dongjiang River Basin, and the basin life and industry in 2020. The weight coefficients of water distribution in agriculture and the ecological environment outside the river are 0.722 ~ 0.71 ~ 0.69 and 0.46, respectively. The corresponding water allocation of different industries in the year of special dry water is 2.02 billion mm3, 2.857 billion mt3, 3.361 billion mm3 and 205 million mm3 respectively. The results of water distribution are more objective and reasonable. Under the control index of the total amount of water, it is the key of the game of water distribution to make clear the amount of incentive and punishment of water distribution, and through the mechanism of incentive and punishment of water use, In order to increase the enthusiasm of water saving and improve the efficiency of water use, the water consumption of various industries is forced to repeat the game in the range of the total water use control index of river basin. Finally, the unity of individual rationality of water use in various industries and collective rationality of water resources development and utilization in the whole basin is gradually realized. The research results are conducive to ensuring the effective implementation of the strictest water resources management system. It provides scientific decision basis for water distribution of watershed industry under changing environment.
【作者单位】：中山大学水资源与环境系;华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室;环境保护部华南环境科学研究所;中国电建集团北京勘测设计研究院有限公司安徽分院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年项目“受用水总量约束的水资源优化配置二层合作博弈模式和方法”(批准号:51509127);国家自然科学基金项目“变化环境下西南河流源区来水-供水-发电-环境互馈博弈自适应协同调控”(批准号:91547202);国家自然科学基金重大国际合作项目“变化环境下基于水联网和用水总量控制的水资源配置报童模式和方法”(批准号:51210013);国家自然科学基金青年项目“变化环境下水资源脆弱性与适应性管理机制”(批准号:41301627)
【分类号】：TV213.4

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