新疆塔里木河流域洪水过程集聚性及低频气候影响

发布时间：2018-04-08 09:20

  本文选题：Cox回归模型　切入点：POT抽样　出处：《水科学进展》2016年04期

【摘要】：运用Cox回归模型、月频率法以及离散指数法,研究了新疆塔里木河(塔河)流域8个水文站点POT抽样和5个区域洪水序列时间集聚性特征以及受低频气候变化的影响。结果表明:受气候变化的影响,塔河流域洪水序列呈现显著集聚性特征,洪水发生频率高的时期往往也是大量级洪峰集中发生的时期,这是塔河流域洪灾损失居高不下的主要原因;Cox回归模型拟合的气候指标系数值为正值的站点和区域,气候指标正相位导致相同超过概率的洪水发生时间提前,而相同发生时间的洪水发生超过概率降低,气候指标值为负值时则相反;塔河流域大部分水文站点和区域洪水发生的超过概率均对气候指标变化有较好响应,这一现象有利于塔河流域洪水风险控制与洪灾管理;塔河流域站点洪水序列多无年际集聚性现象,而区域洪水序列的年际集聚性特征显著。
[Abstract]:The application of Cox regression model on frequency method and the discrete index method of Xinjiang Tarim River Basin (Tahe) 8 hydrological stations POT sampling and 5 regional flood time series clustering characteristics and the influence of low-frequency climate change. The results showed that affected by climate change, Tahe basin flood sequence showed significant agglomeration characteristics flood, high frequency period is often a concentrated peak period, which is the main reason of Tahe River flood loss high; climate index value Cox regression model fitting for positive stand point and regional climate index, positive phase lead time had the same probability of flood in advance, and the same time the flood occurred more than reduce the probability, the climate index value is negative when the opposite; more than the occurrence probability of Tahe basin most hydrological stations and regional flood of gas This change is favorable for flood risk control and flood management in the Tahe River Basin. There is no interannual clustering phenomenon in the flood season of Tahe basin, and the interannual clustering characteristics of regional flood sequences are significant.

【作者单位】： 中山大学水资源与环境系;中山大学华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室;安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院;
【基金】：国家杰出青年科学基金资助项目(51425903) 香港特别行政区研究资助局项目(CUHK441313)~~
【分类号】：TV122
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本文编号：1720985