基于可拓模型的水资源承载力评价及多目标优化配置

发布时间：2018-04-20 02:36

本文选题：可拓理论 + 水资源承载力　；参考：《东北农业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：黑龙江省域内水系发达,是我国重要的粮食生产基地,担负着保障国家粮食安全的重任。近年来,粮食生产取得巨大成就,但随着人口快速增长、生活水平提高和经济社会发展,水资源的短缺已成为制约我国国民经济和社会发展的瓶颈,省内部分地区出现了地下水水位下降、地下水超采现象、生态环境遭到破坏等问题。针对黑龙江省水资源开发利用现状,本文以实现黑龙江水资源可持续利用为指导理念,对各行政区进行水资源承载力等级评价,同时针对水资源承载力处于弱压力状态的佳木斯地区农业用水进行多目标优化配置,为黑龙江省各行政区水资源的可持续性开采利用及佳木斯农业灌溉水量的分配提供了一定的理论基础。主要研究内容和结论如下:(1)基于黑龙江省水资源开发利用现状和水利工程现状,通过查阅整合文献资料,比选研究方法。根据信息熵理论和可拓学理论建立了水资源承载力评价模型,构建水资源承载力评价体系提出与黑龙江省相符合的水资源承载力评价指标,对13个行政区的水资源承载力进行研究,分析计算得出各行政区的水资源承载力的综合关联度可确定其评价等级。牡丹江、黑河及大兴安岭地区水资源承载力最佳,处于Ⅰ级,为强无压力状态;大庆和伊春处于Ⅱ级,为弱无压力状态;哈尔滨和七台河处于Ⅲ级,水资源开发利用与社会发展处于平衡的状态;佳木斯、齐齐哈尔、鸡西、鹤岗、双鸭山及绥化处于Ⅳ级,为弱压力状态。其中,佳木斯、齐齐哈尔、鸡西、鹤岗、双鸭山及绥化等地区的水资源承载力均处于相同的等级,根据其等级变量特征值,可知这六个行政区的水资源承载力均是偏向于Ⅲ级的状态,偏向程度的大小是:绥化齐齐哈尔佳木斯鸡西双鸭山鹤岗,表明了这六个行政区的水资源在承载力处于弱压力状态下的开发潜力的大小。(2)以黑龙江省三江平原粮食主产区佳木斯市农业用水为例,建立了基于带精英策略的快速非支配排序遗传算法NSGA-Ⅱ(Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-Ⅱ)多目标优化配置模型,提出了在不同来水情景下多水源对多农作物供水的方法。运用NSGA-Ⅱ对多目标优化配置模型求解,计算得出三种来水情况下不同水源对不同农作物的多个供水方案,选取三个方案权衡分析经济目标和环境目标,高来水情景中方案一的经济目标是8.888×109元,环境目标是5.881×106 kg,方案二分别是8.80×109元和5.805×106 kg,方案三分别是8.556×109元和5.745×106 kg,决策者可根据偏好或实际情况选择合适的方案作为决策方案,可为当地农业水资源规划提供依据。该模型考虑了地表水与地下水的联合调度,实现了多水源对多农作物的联合供水,得到不同来水情况下多水源对多农作物的多个供水方案。总之,本文基于熵权物元可拓模型确定了各行政区的水资源承载力等级,全面地反映了各行政区水资源承载力等级及区域性差异,对黑龙江省各行政区水资源的总体利用水平有了大致了解。针对水资源承载力处于弱压力状态的佳木斯市水资源开发利用中地下水位下降、水环境恶化的情况,利用基于NSGA-Ⅱ的多水源、多目标优化配置模型,求解出三种来水情景下的多个地表水、地下水配水方案,为保障佳木斯地区的综合效益最优化及农业水资源的可持续利用提供了一定的理论指导,全面提高地表水的开采利用率,从而来实现佳木斯市水资源对其社会经济发展的可持续供给。
[Abstract]:The water system in the province of Heilongjiang is developed. It is an important grain production base in China and bears the responsibility of ensuring the national food security. In recent years, the grain production has made great achievements. However, with the rapid growth of the population, the improvement of the living standard and the economic and social development, the shortage of water resources has become the bottleneck of the national economy and social development. In order to realize the sustainable utilization of water resources in Heilongjiang, the water resources carrying capacity of each administrative region is evaluated and the water resources carrying capacity is at the same time. In order to realize the sustainable utilization of water resources in Heilongjiang Province, the groundwater level decline, the groundwater overexploitation and the ecological environment have been destroyed. The multi-objective optimal allocation of agricultural water in Jiamusi area in the weak pressure state provides a theoretical basis for the sustainable exploitation and utilization of water resources in various administrative regions of Heilongjiang province and the distribution of agricultural irrigation water in Jiamusi. The main contents and conclusions are as follows: (1) based on the current situation of water resources exploitation and utilization and water in Heilongjiang Province, the main research contents and conclusions are as follows. According to the information entropy theory and the extenics theory, the evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity is established according to the information entropy theory and the extenics theory, and the evaluation index of water resources carrying capacity is put forward in accordance with the Heilongjiang Province, and the water resources carrying capacity of the 13 administrative regions is studied. The comprehensive correlation degree of water resources carrying capacity of each administrative region can be calculated to determine its evaluation grade. The water resources carrying capacity of Mudanjiang, Heihe and Greater Khingan Range is the best, in grade I, strong and pressure free; Daqing and Yichun are in class II, weak and non pressure state; Harbin and Qitaihe are in grade III, water resources development and utilization and society The development is in a balanced state; Jiamusi, Qigihar, Jixi, Hegang, Shuangyashan and Suihua are in grade IV and are weak pressure states. Among them, the water resources carrying capacity of Jiamusi, Qigihar, Jixi, Hegang, Shuangyashan and Suihua are all at the same level. According to the characteristic values of their rank variables, the water resources of the six administrative regions are known. The source bearing capacity is in the state of grade III, and the degree of bias is: Suihua Qigihar Jiamusi Jixi Shuangyashan Hegang, which indicates the development potential of the water resources in the six administrative regions under the condition of weak pressure. (2) the agricultural water in Jiamusi city of the main grain producing area of Sanjiang, Heilongjiang Province, is established as an example. The multi-objective optimization allocation model of NSGA- II (Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm- II) based on the elite strategy based fast non dominated sorting genetic algorithm (Sorting Genetic Algorithm- II) is proposed. The method of multi water supply to multiple crops under different water conditions is proposed. Using NSGA- II to solve the multi-objective optimization allocation model, three kinds of water conditions are calculated. Three schemes are selected to weigh the economic targets and environmental targets. The economic target of the project one is 8.888 x 109 yuan, the environment target is 5.881 x 106 kg, the scheme two is 8.80 * 109 yuan and 5.805 x 106 kg respectively. The scheme three are 8.556 * 109 and 5.745 * 8.80 kg, respectively. It can provide the basis for the local agricultural water resource planning according to the preference or the actual situation, which can provide the basis for the local agricultural water resources planning. This model considers the joint dispatching of surface water and groundwater, realizes the joint water supply of multi water to the crops, and obtains multiple water supply schemes for multi crops under different water conditions. In this paper, based on the entropy weight matter element extension model, the water resources carrying capacity level of each administrative region is determined, and the water resources carrying capacity level and regional difference in each administrative region are fully reflected. The overall utilization level of water resources in various administrative regions of Heilongjiang province is roughly understood. The Jiamusi city of the water resources carrying capacity is in the weak pressure state. In the development and utilization of water resources and the deterioration of water environment, using multiple water sources based on NSGA- II and multi-objective optimization allocation model, we have solved three kinds of surface water under the situation of water and water allocation scheme, which provides a certain guarantee for the optimization of comprehensive benefits and the sustainable utilization of agricultural water resources in Jiamusi. The theoretical guidance is to comprehensively improve the exploitation and utilization rate of surface water, so as to realize the sustainable supply of water resources to Jiamusi's social and economic development.

【学位授予单位】：东北农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TV213.4

【参考文献】