陕西省水利投资对国民经济的拉动作用

发布时间：2018-04-24 02:24

本文选题：水利投资 + 经济增长　；参考：《西北农林科技大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：水利建设作为公共基础设施是国民经济和社会发展的一部分，水利投资对国民经济发展和增加国内生产有十分重要的作用，水利投资能够为其他行业的发展能够提供基本的生产条件。水利建设发展对国民经济增长具有推动作用，并且在一定程度上会制约国民经济的发展，即水利的发展跟不上国民经济的发展。因此，研究水利基础建设对国民经济增长的拉动作用，对于水利基础设施投资方向的确定无疑具有重要的现实意义。对于这些问题的研究，是提升陕西省水利建设基础，改善水利建设现状，实现我国经济持续快速协调发展的基础性工作。本文根据陕西省1985-2011年的水利相关数据，通过建立水利投资与GDP的向量自回归(VAR)模型，利用Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应和方差分解等计量经济学方法对水利投资与GDP之间的相关关系进行实证分析，并采用柯布道格拉斯生产函数，计算陕西省固定资产投资对经济增长的产出弹性，以此分析为基础估算水利建设投资对促进经济增长和扩大就业的贡献，根据以上分析结果给出相应的政策建议。通过研究表明：水利投资与国民经济增长存在双向因果关系。GDP是水利投资的格兰杰原因，水利投资是GDP的格兰杰原因。也就是表明，水利投资对国民经济增长具有长期增长效应，有力推动了国民经济的发展。反过来，国民经济发展对水利投资也有明显的拉动作用。并且通过脉冲分析得出GDP对水利投资的一个标准差的新息的响应在前一期比较敏感，波动比较大一直处于正向影响阶段，并且逐步增加，，之后GDP对I的变化响应程度逐渐减弱。水利投资对GDP的一个标准差的新息的响应在处于正向影响阶段，在第二期之后逐渐增加，第四期后逐渐趋于平稳波动不大。与之前因果关系检验结果一致，水利投资在较短的时期内，对经济增长的促进作用较长期更为明显。总的来说水利投资对经济的拉动还是有一定作用，说明随着水利投资进程的加快，GDP受到一定的推动。从GDP方差分解的来分析，GDP对自身的贡献刚开始最强，后期逐渐减弱，在第10期降为63.23%；水利投资对GDP的贡献逐渐增强，在第10期达到36.77%；从水利投资方差分解结果来看，水利投资对自身的贡献刚开始最强，后期逐渐减弱，在第10期降为87.75%；GDP对水利投资的贡献逐渐增强，在第10期达到10.27%，表明随着国民经济的发展，对我国水利投资的支持作用将不断加强。在之前验证的基础上采用柯布道格拉斯生产函数，估计陕西省固定资产投资对经济增长的资本与劳动的产出弹性，以此分析为基础估算陕西省水利建设投资对促进经济增长和扩大就业的贡献，并且发现随着水利投资的增加对国民经济与就业的推动有一定的作用，对陕西省国民经济的拉动是逐渐增加的，对就业的拉动先增加后来逐渐减少。
[Abstract]:Water conservancy construction is a part of national economy and social development as public infrastructure. Water conservancy investment plays an important role in the development of national economy and the increase of domestic production. Investment in water conservancy can provide basic production conditions for the development of other industries. The development of water conservancy construction can promote the growth of national economy, and to a certain extent will restrict the development of national economy, that is, the development of water conservancy can not keep up with the development of national economy. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the pulling effect of water conservancy infrastructure on the growth of national economy for the certainty of investment direction of water conservancy infrastructure. The research on these problems is the basic work to promote the foundation of water conservancy construction in Shaanxi Province, to improve the present situation of water conservancy construction and to realize the sustained, rapid and coordinated development of China's economy. Based on the data of water conservancy in Shaanxi Province from 1985 to 2011, this paper establishes the vector autoregressive model of water conservancy investment and GDP, and uses Granger causality test. The correlation between water conservancy investment and GDP is empirically analyzed by econometric methods such as impulse response and variance decomposition, and the output elasticity of fixed asset investment to economic growth in Shaanxi Province is calculated by using Cobb Douglas production function. Based on this analysis, the contribution of investment in water conservancy construction to promoting economic growth and expanding employment is estimated, and corresponding policy suggestions are given according to the above analysis results. The results show that the bidirectional causality between water conservancy investment and national economic growth is the Granger cause of water conservancy investment, and the water conservancy investment is the Granger reason of GDP. That is to say, water conservancy investment has long-term growth effect on national economic growth, and has promoted the development of national economy. Conversely, the national economy development also has the obvious pull effect to the water conservancy investment. The response of GDP to a standard deviation innovation of water conservancy investment is more sensitive in the previous period, and the fluctuation is always in the positive stage, which increases gradually, and then the response of GDP to I gradually weakens. The response of water conservancy investment to a standard deviation innovation of GDP is in the positive stage, increasing gradually after the second phase, and gradually becoming stable after the fourth phase. In accordance with the results of causality test before, the effect of water conservancy investment on economic growth is more obvious in a short period than in the long term. On the whole, the investment of water conservancy has a certain effect on the development of economy, which indicates that with the acceleration of the process of investment in water conservancy, GDP is promoted to a certain extent. From the analysis of GDP variance decomposition, the contribution of GDP to itself was first strongest, then gradually weakened, and then decreased to 63.230.The contribution of water conservancy investment to GDP increased gradually, and reached 36.77 in the 10th period. From the result of variance decomposition of water resources investment, The contribution of water conservancy investment to itself was at first the strongest, and gradually weakened in the latter period. In the tenth period, the contribution of GDP to water conservancy investment was gradually increased to 87.75, and in the 10th period it reached 10.27, indicating that with the development of the national economy, To our country water conservancy investment's support function will strengthen unceasingly. On the basis of previous verification, the production function of Cobb Douglas is used to estimate the output elasticity of fixed asset investment in Shaanxi Province to the capital and labor of economic growth. Based on this analysis, the contribution of investment in water conservancy construction in Shaanxi Province to promoting economic growth and expanding employment is estimated, and it is found that with the increase of investment in water conservancy, it plays a certain role in promoting the national economy and employment. The pull on the national economy of Shaanxi Province is gradually increased, the pull on employment first increased and then gradually decreased.
【学位授予单位】：西北农林科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.91;F127

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