皇甫川流域1955-2013年水沙变化趋势与周期特征

发布时间：2018-04-28 02:13

本文选题：水沙变化 + 周期变化　；参考：《水土保持研究》2017年03期

【摘要】：为揭示黄河流域重要的产沙支流皇甫川在新时期水沙如何变化,采用Mann-Kendall检验、Pettitt检验及Morlet小波变换,分析了皇甫川流域1955—2013年水沙变化的趋势、突变和周期变化特征。结果表明:在99%显著性水平下,皇甫川流域的年径流量和输沙量均呈显著减少趋势,且径流量的减少大于输沙量的减少,进入21世纪以来,水沙年际变异更为显著;径流量、输沙量序列一级突变点均发生在1984年,二级突变点有所不同,年输沙量序列突变时间(2003年)晚于年径流量序列突变的时间(1998年);水沙演化过程中均存在4个尺度的周期变化,分别为22~32,13~21,7~12,3~6a和23~32,13~22,7~12,3~6a;在径流量和输沙量整体减少的趋势下,2011—2020年径流量将处于相对偏丰阶段,而输沙量在2013—2018年将处于相对偏多沙时期。研究表明,皇甫川流域径流量和输沙量的减少是气候的暖干化和渐强的人类活动综合作用的结果,而大规模的水土保持措施是水沙减少的重要影响因素。
[Abstract]:In order to reveal the variation of water and sediment in Huangfuchuan, an important tributary of the Yellow River Basin, the trend, abrupt change and periodic variation of water and sediment in Huangfuchuan Basin from 1955 to 2013 were analyzed by using Mann-Kendall test and Morlet wavelet transform. The results show that at the level of 99% significance, the annual runoff and sediment discharge of Huangfuchuan basin are significantly decreased, and the decrease of runoff is greater than that of sediment discharge. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the interannual variation of water and sand has become more significant, and the runoff, The first mutation point of sediment transport sequence occurred in 1984, and the second order mutation point was different. The mutation time (2003) of annual sediment transport sequence was later than that of annual runoff sequence (1998). There were four scale periodic changes in the evolution of water and sediment. The results show that the runoff in 2011-2020 will be relatively abundant in 2011-2020 under the trend of overall decrease of runoff and sediment transport, and the sediment discharge will be relatively abundant in 2013-2018. The results show that the decrease of runoff and sediment transport in Huangfuchuan Basin is the result of the warm drying of climate and the increasing human activities, and the large scale soil and water conservation measures are the important influencing factors of water and sediment reduction.
【作者单位】：中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所;西北农林科技大学水土保持研究所;
【基金】：中国科学院重点部署项目“黄土高原及周边沙地近代生态环境的演变与可持续性”子课题“不同区域典型支流水沙变化对坝库工程的响应”(KZZD-EW-04-03-04)
【分类号】：P333

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