基于厄尔尼诺现象研究的丰满水库径流预测

发布时间：2018-04-30 14:16

本文选题：厄尔尼诺 + 太平洋十年涛动　；参考：《人民黄河》2016年11期

【摘要】：利用PDO冷暖位相下El Nino和La Nina事件发生年份表,结合丰满水库流域来水实际,研究了PDO冷暖位相下El Nino和La Nina事件与丰满水库来水及洪水的统计规律。结果表明:PDO冷位相期El Nino发生年份丰满水库一般为枯水,PDO暖位相期El Nino发生年份丰满水库一般为丰水,丰满水库特丰水及大洪水多发生于PDO冷位相期。通过对1700—2014年太阳黑子相对数变化规律的分析,论证了1957年前后PDO冷位相期El Nino发生年份丰满水库来水规律异常与太阳黑子相对数阶段性趋势变化上的扰动有关。基于统计规律,预测2015年丰满水库来水为枯水。
[Abstract]:Based on the occurrence year table of El Nino and La Nina events in the cold and warm phase of PDO, combined with the actual situation of water coming from Fengman reservoir basin, the statistical laws of El Nino and La Nina events and flood in Fengman reservoir under PDO cold and warm phase are studied. The results show that the Fengman reservoir is usually rich in water in the warm phase of El Nino in the cold phase of the cold phase El Nino, and in the cold phase of the PDO, the water abundance and the flood of the reservoir in Fengman reservoir are mostly in the cold phase of PDO. Based on the analysis of the variation law of sunspot relative number from 1700-2014, it is proved that the anomaly of water coming from Fengman reservoir in the year of El Nino in the cold phase period of PDO around 1957 is related to the disturbance of the phase trend change of sunspot relative number. Based on the statistical law, it is predicted that the water coming from Fengman Reservoir will be dry water in 2015.
【作者单位】：新源控股公司丰满发电厂;东华大学环境科学与工程学院;中国水利水电科学研究院;
【基金】：国家“973”计划项目(2013CB036406)
【分类号】：TV697.21;TV124

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