基于洪峰模数的山洪灾害雨量预警指标研究

发布时间：2018-05-02 15:03

本文选题：洪峰模数 + 雨量预警指标　；参考：《地球信息科学学报》2017年12期

【摘要】：山洪灾害预警是防御山洪的重要非工程措施,雨量预警指标是山洪灾害预警的关键。目前的雨量预警指标计算方法对水文气象资料条件以及模型建模率定都有很高的要求,并不适用于基层防汛人员。因此,本文基于全国山洪灾害调查评价成果数据,提出了一种运用洪峰模数计算雨量预警指标的简便、易用的方法。该方法以小流域洪水计算推理公式为基础,将公式中流量与流域面积的比值用洪峰模数表示,得到基于洪峰模数的临界雨量估算公式,并考虑流域土壤含水量等因素,分析临界雨量变化阈值,最终得到雨量预警指标。本文以云南省绥江县双河小流域为例,计算结果显示不同时段(1 h、3 h、6 h)净雨量和预警时段呈线性关系。降雨损失计算中洼地蓄水和植被截留在不同时段相同,土壤下渗在不同的时段不相同。在此基础上,计算不同土壤含水量条件下,不同时段的雨量预警指标。最后,对临界流量、降雨损失和预警指标进行了合理性分析,结果显示预警指标和调查评价结果及实测降雨都比较接近,计算的预警指标合理。本研究为基层山洪灾害预警提供了一种快速、便捷的预警指标计算方法,为预警指标计算提供技术支持。
[Abstract]:Early warning of mountain torrents is an important non-engineering measure to prevent mountain torrents, and rainfall warning index is the key to early warning of mountain torrents. The present calculation method of rainfall early warning index has high requirements for hydrometeorological data condition and model modeling rate, and is not suitable for flood control personnel at the grass-roots level. Therefore, based on the results of national mountain torrents survey and evaluation, this paper puts forward a simple and easy to use method to calculate rainfall early warning index by using Hong Feng modulus. This method is based on the inferential formula of flood calculation in small watershed. The ratio of discharge to area in the formula is expressed by Hong Feng modulus, and the critical rainfall estimation formula based on Hong Feng modulus is obtained, and the factors such as soil water content of watershed are taken into account. The threshold of critical rainfall variation is analyzed and the rainfall warning index is obtained. Taking Shuanghe small watershed of Suijiang County Yunnan Province as an example the calculated results show that the net rainfall is linearly related to the early warning period in different periods. In the calculation of rainfall loss, the depressions and vegetation interception are the same in different periods, and the soil infiltration is different in different periods. On this basis, the early warning indexes of rainfall in different periods were calculated under different soil moisture content. Finally, the rationality analysis of critical flow rate, rainfall loss and early warning index is carried out. The results show that the early warning index is close to the investigation and evaluation results and the measured rainfall, and the calculated early warning index is reasonable. This study provides a fast and convenient method for early warning of mountain torrents and provides technical support for the calculation of early warning indexes.
【作者单位】：中国水利水电科学研究院;水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心;
【基金】：云南省山洪灾害防治预警指标和阈值分析方法研究(JZ02032A032015) 全国山洪灾害防治项目(126301001000150068)
【分类号】：P338

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