松潘气候变化及其对径流量的影响

发布时间：2018-05-02 15:53

本文选题：气候变化 + 径流量　；参考：《四川师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文以松潘为研究对象,基于松潘气象站1951-2014年近64a气象观测资料、紫坪铺水文站1966-2001年近36a实测径流数据,采用线性倾向估计、小波分析法、曼-肯德尔突变检验法,详细分析了研究区的气温、降水量、降水日数、极端气温的年际和季节变化趋势、多时间尺度变化特征和突变性。并选用Pearson相关分析法进行气候变化对径流量的影响研究。总体而言,研究区气候呈现“暖干化”趋势,气温的突变比降水的突变频繁,夏季降水对径流量的影响最显著。具体研究结果如下:(1)近64年以来,研究区年、四季平均气温均呈现出明显波动上升趋势,其中秋、冬季平均气温上升趋势最显著。春、夏、秋、冬四季平均气温长时间序列分别出现了 36a、9a、20a、28a的振荡主周期。此外,研究区年平均气温、秋季和冬季平均气温在1993年均发生显著突变;春季和夏季平均气温分别在1995年、1996年发生显著突变。(2)近64年以来,研究区年平均降水量长时间序列呈现微弱的下降趋势,并表现出以19a为主周期的强烈振荡信号。该区春季和冬季平均降水量呈现上升趋势,夏季和秋季平均降水量则呈现微弱的下降趋势。其中,春季、秋季和冬季分别表现出18a、9a、20a强烈的长周期振荡信号,夏季表现出以5a为主周期的明显振荡信号。此外,除春季于1952年发生较显著的突变,其它均无出现显著突变点。(3)近64年以来,研究区年、四季平均降水日数长时间序列均呈现出微弱的波动下降趋势,且年平均降水日数和冬季降水日数均表现出36a为主周期的明显振荡信号;春季、夏季、秋季分别表现出20a、2a、10a的振荡主周期。其中,秋季在1957年出现显著下降突变点,其它均无出现显著突变点。(4)近64年以来,研究区年平均极端最低气温和极端最高气温长时间序列均呈现上升趋势,且年平均极端最低气温上升幅度较大,上升率为0.355℃/10a。年平均极端最低气温长时间序列表现出以3a、16a为主周期的微弱振荡信号,且在1990年发生了突变;年平均极端最高气温长时间序列表现出以6a、17a、28a为主周期的强烈振荡信号,并在1996年出现暖突变。(5)紫坪铺水文站1966-2001年年径流量与同期松潘各气候要素的相关性都较弱,呈低度相关或弱相关。降水的变化对径流量的影响要比气温的影响明显,其中夏季降水及其变化的影响最显著。并且只有松潘夏季降水量与紫坪铺水文站年径流量线性相关通过了显著水平为0.05的显著性检验。紫坪铺水文站年径流量与松潘年平均降水量、年平均降水日数、夏季和秋季降水日数的线性相关性都只通过了显著水平为0.10的显著性检验。而紫坪铺水文站年径流量与与松潘其它时间尺度的降水量、气温、降水日数的弱线性相关都未通过显著水平为0.10的显著性检验,不具有统计意义。这主要是由于松潘地区仅仅是岷江上游源头区域,集水面积只是上游总集水区域中很小的部分,以及岷江源头地区与岷江上游其它地区气候相差十分悬殊。紫坪铺水文站1966-2001年年径流量与同期松潘年平均气温及秋、冬季平均气温均存在12a的一致性周期;紫坪铺水文站年径流量与松潘秋季平均气温,以及夏、冬季平均降水均存在5a的一致性周期;紫坪铺水文站年径流量与松潘春季平均降水则存在20 a的一致性长周期。
[Abstract]:Taking Songpan as the research object, based on the 1951-2014 year 64a meteorological observation data of Songpan meteorological station and 1966-2001 years' measured runoff data from Zipingpu hydrological station, the temperature, precipitation, precipitation days, interannual and seasonal extreme temperatures of the study area are analyzed in detail by linear tendency estimation, wavelet analysis and Mann Kendall mutation test. Pearson correlation analysis was used to study the influence of climate change on runoff. In general, the climate of the study area showed a "warm dry" trend, the abrupt change of temperature was more frequent than the precipitation, and the effect of summer precipitation on the runoff was the most significant. The specific results were as follows: 1 In the last 64 years, the annual average temperature of the four seasons has shown an obvious fluctuating trend. In autumn, the average temperature rising trend is the most significant in autumn. In spring, summer, autumn and winter, the long time series of mean air temperature in the four seasons is 36a, 9a, 20a, 28a, respectively, and the average temperature in the study area and the average temperature in autumn and winter are 1993 The average annual temperature in spring and summer had a significant sudden change in 1995 and 1996. (2) for the last 64 years, the long time series of annual mean precipitation in the study area showed a weak downward trend and showed a strong oscillating signal with 19A as the main cycle. The average precipitation in spring and winter in this area showed an upward trend in the spring and winter, in summer and in the summer. In autumn and winter, the average precipitation in autumn and winter showed a strong oscillation signal of 18a, 9a, 20a, and in summer, the obvious oscillation signal was shown as the main cycle of 5A. In addition, there was a significant mutation in spring in 1952, and no significant mutation was found in the rest of the year. (3) since the last 64 years, In the year of the study, the long time series of average precipitation in the four seasons showed a weak trend of fluctuation, and the annual average precipitation days and the days of winter precipitation showed the obvious oscillation signal of the 36a main cycle. In spring, summer and autumn, the main oscillation period of 20a, 2a, 10A was shown respectively. No significant mutation points were found in all the others. (4) for the last 64 years, the average annual mean extreme minimum temperature and the extreme maximum temperature in the study area were rising, and the annual mean extreme minimum temperature increased greatly. The increase rate of the average extreme lowest gas temperature in the /10a. year was in the 3a and 16A period. The weak oscillation signal was changed in 1990, and the long time series of the annual mean extreme maximum temperature showed a strong oscillation signal with 6a, 17a, 28a as the main cycle, and there was a warm sudden change in 1996. (5) the annual runoff of Zipingpu hydrological station was weak in relation to the climatic factors of Songpan at the same time in 1966-2001, and showed low correlation or weak correlation. The influence of the change of precipitation on the runoff is more obvious than that of the temperature, in which summer precipitation and its changes have the most significant influence. Only the linear correlation between summer precipitation in Songpan and the annual runoff of Zipingpu hydrological station has passed the significant test of a significant level of 0.05. The annual runoff of Zipingpu hydrological station and the annual average precipitation in Songpan, and the annual precipitation, and the annual precipitation of Zipingpu hydrological station The linear correlation of average precipitation days, summer and autumn precipitation days only passed the significant test of significant level of 0.10, while the annual runoff of Zipingpu hydrological station and the weak linear correlation with the other time scales of Songpan, the temperature and the number of precipitation days did not pass the significant level of 0.10, which did not have statistical meaning. The main reason is that the Songpan area is only the source area of the upper reaches of the Minjiang River, the water collection area is only a small part of the upstream total water collection area, and the difference between the source area of the Minjiang River and the other areas in the upper reaches of Minjiang River is very different. The annual runoff of the Zipingpu hydrological station in 1966-2001 and the average annual temperature and autumn of the same period and the average winter temperature in the winter and winter in the same period of Songpan. The consistency period of 12a exists, and the annual runoff of Zipingpu hydrological station, and the average temperature in autumn in Songpan, and the average precipitation in summer and winter have a consistent period of 5A. The annual runoff of Zipingpu hydrological station and the average precipitation in the spring of Songpan have a consistent long period of 20 A.

【学位授予单位】：四川师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：P467;P333.1

【参考文献】