测流不确定度的插值方差估计法

发布时间：2018-05-11 14:19

本文选题：流量测量 + 不确定度　；参考：《水科学进展》2017年01期

【摘要】：目前,测流不确定度通过误差试验或通过经验数值来确定,但这些方式存在着工作量大或不确定估计不足等局限性。为解决此问题,对基于实测数据和统计理论的插值方差估计法在不同测流条件下进行了验证,选取白河、襄阳和沙洋3个流量站进行了实测数据的不确定度分析,同时对白河站进行了Monte Carlo试验,比较插值方差估计法得到的不确定度与真实误差的差异。结果表明,插值方差估计法能较好地反映水位变化的影响,插值方差估计法所得到的不确定度与真实测流误差的相关系数达0.64,与断面水位变化的Spearman相关系数达0.79,高、中水位情况下插值方差估计法的不确定度估计结果较为合理,低水位情况下偏高。
[Abstract]:At present, the uncertainty of flow measurement is determined by error test or empirical value, but these methods have some limitations, such as heavy workload or uncertain estimation. In order to solve this problem, the interpolation variance estimation method based on measured data and statistical theory is verified under different current measurement conditions. The uncertainty of measured data is analyzed at three flow stations of Baihe, Xiangyang and Shayang. At the same time, the Monte Carlo test of Baihe station is carried out to compare the difference between the uncertainty obtained by the interpolation variance estimation method and the real error. The results show that the interpolation variance estimation method can better reflect the influence of water level change. The correlation coefficient between the uncertainty obtained by the interpolation variance estimation method and the real current measurement error is 0.64, and the correlation coefficient of the interpolation variance estimation method with the section water level change is 0.79, which is high. The result of uncertainty estimation of interpolation variance estimation method is reasonable in the case of middle water level and higher in the case of low water level.
【作者单位】：浙江大学建筑工程学院水文与水资源研究所;长江水利委员会长江勘测规划设计研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51379183;91547106)~~
【分类号】：P332

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