基于DPSIRM框架的区域水资源承载力综合评价

发布时间：2018-05-15 02:37

本文选题：水资源承载力 + DPSIRM框架　；参考：《自然资源学报》2017年03期

【摘要】：综合考虑影响水资源系统的资源、生态、环境、经济、社会等因素,论文通过对水资源系统内在机理研究,构建基于驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应-管理(DPSIRM)概念框架的水资源承载力DPSIRM评价指标体系,给出各子系统明确的含义,以反映系统内部各要素之间的关系。在此基础上,将模拟退火算法用于投影寻踪优化,构建耦合SA-PP模型。并将模型应用于2003—2012年云南省水资源承载力综合评价,并分析投影特征值的历年变化特征。研究结果表明:2003—2012年云南省水资源承载力呈逐步上升趋势,即在当前社会经济发展水平下,云南省水资源承载力逐步增强,社会经济发展的规模处于水资源可支撑的规模范围内。2006年以前,水资源承载力呈加速增长趋势,其增长潜力较大。2006年以后,水资源承载力波动幅度较大,而2009和2011年年增幅趋于零。最佳投影方向各分量的大小反映了各评价指标对水资源承载力的影响程度,值越大则对应的评价指标对水资源承载力的影响程度越大。对水资源承载力影响程度最大的5项指标依次为:生活污水排放量、"三废"治理投资、人均GDP、单位GDP水耗和森林覆盖率。压力子系统对水资源承载力影响比重为26.15%,表明压力子系统是影响云南省水资源承载力的最重要因子。研究表明此模型具有实用性,可为区域水资源规划与管理提供科学决策依据。
[Abstract]:Considering the factors affecting water resources, ecology, environment, economy, society and so on, the paper studies the mechanism of water resources system. The DPSIRM evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity based on the concept framework of driving-pressure-status-effect-response-management (DPSIRM) is constructed, and the clear meaning of each subsystem is given to reflect the relationship among the elements within the system. On this basis, simulated annealing algorithm is applied to projection pursuit optimization to construct coupled SA-PP model. The model is applied to the comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Yunnan Province from 2003 to 2012, and the variation characteristics of projection eigenvalues over the years are analyzed. The results show that the carrying capacity of water resources in Yunnan Province increased gradually from 2003 to 2012, that is, under the current level of social and economic development, the carrying capacity of water resources in Yunnan Province gradually increased. The scale of social and economic development is within the scope of water resources support. Before 2006, the carrying capacity of water resources showed an accelerated growth trend, and its growth potential was great. After 2006, the water resources carrying capacity fluctuated greatly. And 2009 and 2011 year-on-year growth tends to zero. The magnitude of each component of the optimal projection direction reflects the influence of each evaluation index on the water resources carrying capacity, and the greater the value, the greater the impact of the corresponding evaluation index on the water resources carrying capacity. The five indexes that have the greatest influence on the carrying capacity of water resources are as follows: domestic sewage discharge, "three wastes" treatment investment, GDP per capita, water consumption per unit GDP and forest coverage. The specific gravity of pressure subsystem on water resources carrying capacity is 26.15, which indicates that pressure subsystem is the most important factor affecting water resources carrying capacity in Yunnan Province. The research shows that the model is practical and can provide scientific decision basis for regional water resources planning and management.
【作者单位】：成都信息工程大学资源环境学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(51209024) 国家社会科学基金(13BGL009) 四川省社会科学项目(SC15TJ019) 四川省教育厅项目(15ZA0192,16ZA0207)~~
【分类号】：TV213.4

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