基于不确定性理论的礼泉县水资源合理配置研究

发布时间：2018-05-15 03:01

本文选题：水资源 + 合理配置　；参考：《西安理工大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：水资源匮乏已是21世纪全球人类面临的重大难题,随着十一五规划实施以来,我国西北地区经济社会得到迅猛发展,大大增加我国西北地区对水资源的需求量,但是西北地区水资源总量短缺、生态环境脆弱,加上经济发展底子薄,导致区域供水结构不合理、水资源有效利用率低,水资源匮乏已经变成限制我国西北地区发展的关键因素。对有限的水资源进行合理配置,促进西北地区经济社会环境的协调发展,这是现阶段西北地区水利工作的主要任务之一。然而,水资源系统中普遍存在着不确定性,且随着地区人口、社会、经济的扩张,不确定性越来越呈现出物理、事理和人理相互交叉的特征,造成水资源系统本身及其环境的不确定性加剧。传统配置方法往往对水资源系统中的不确定性进行经验估计或者忽略,没有对不确定性的深入研究,因而对不确定问题的研究尚且不够。本次研究基于礼泉县规划年2030年供需平衡分析,将基于供需平衡配置模型、多水源多目标优化配置模型和考虑系统不确定性的区间两阶段随机模型运用于礼泉县水资源合理配置中,具体研究内容如下:(1)在充分了解礼泉县自然地理概况、水资源概况、经济社会发展概况的基础上,利用定额法和趋势法对规划年礼泉县需水量和可供水量进行预测,并进行三次供需平衡分析。(2)以三次供需平衡结果为基础,建立基于供需平衡的礼泉县水资源合理配置模型;同时考虑到外调水的争议及分配过程中的水质问题,以礼泉县经济效益值最大和总缺水量最小为目标函数,建立75%来水水平下礼泉县多水源多目标优化配置模型。(3)进一步考虑水资源系统中普遍存在的不确定性问题,采用概率数学和区间数学来表达供需水系统存在的不确定性,同时吸收两阶段规划的思想,建立区间两阶段随机规划模型。研究结果表明,基于不确定理论的区间两阶段随机规划模型能有效解决礼泉县水资源配置系统中存在的不确定性,与确定性模型相比,区间两阶段随机规划模型能够支持决策者在最优解区间内做出多种决策方案,同时通过两阶段的的惩罚思想有效减少水资源的浪费。
[Abstract]:The scarcity of water resources has become a major problem for human beings in the 21st century. With the implementation of the 11th Five-Year Plan, the economic and social development of the Northwest region of China has developed rapidly, which has greatly increased the demand for water resources in the Northwest region of China. However, the shortage of water resources in Northwest China, the fragile ecological environment and the weak foundation for economic development have led to unreasonable regional water supply structures and low effective utilization of water resources. Water scarcity has become a key factor limiting the development of northwest China. The rational allocation of limited water resources and the coordinated development of the economic and social environment in Northwest China are one of the main tasks of water conservancy work in Northwest China at this stage. However, uncertainty exists generally in water resources system, and with the expansion of population, society and economy, uncertainty becomes more and more physical, rational and human. The uncertainty of water resources system itself and its environment is increased. The traditional allocation methods often estimate or ignore the uncertainty in water resources system, and there is no in-depth study on the uncertainty, so the study of uncertainty is not enough. This study is based on the analysis of supply and demand balance in Liquan county planning year 2030, and will be based on the supply and demand balance allocation model. The multi-source multi-objective optimal allocation model and the interval two-stage stochastic model considering the uncertainty of the system are applied to the rational allocation of water resources in Liquan County. The specific research contents are as follows: 1) in order to fully understand the natural geography and water resources profile of Liquan County, On the basis of the general situation of economic and social development, this paper uses quota method and trend method to forecast the water demand and available water supply in Liquan County in the planning year, and analyzes the balance of supply and demand for three times. (2) based on the results of three times of supply and demand balance, A reasonable allocation model of water resources in Liquan County is established based on the balance of supply and demand, and the objective function is to take the maximum economic benefit and the minimum total water shortage of Liquan County as the objective function, considering the dispute of water transfer and the water quality in the process of water distribution. In this paper, a multi-objective optimal allocation model of multi-water resources in Liquan County is established at 75% water supply level. The uncertainty of water supply and demand system is expressed by probability mathematics and interval mathematics, considering the general uncertainty in water resources system, and the probability mathematics and interval mathematics are used to express the uncertainty of water supply and demand system. At the same time, an interval two-stage stochastic programming model is established by absorbing the idea of two-stage programming. The results show that the interval two-stage stochastic programming model based on uncertainty theory can effectively solve the uncertainty in Liquan County water resources allocation system, compared with the deterministic model. The interval two-stage stochastic programming model can support the decision makers to make a variety of decision schemes in the interval of the optimal solution, and reduce the waste of water resources effectively through the two-stage punishment idea.
【学位授予单位】：西安理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TV213.4

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