概率论与模糊识别在水资源脆弱性评价中的应用

发布时间：2018-05-16 04:20

本文选题：贝叶斯公式 + 随机不确定性　；参考：《水电能源科学》2017年09期

【摘要】：为准确评价水资源的脆弱性程度,鉴于组合赋权法精度不足等缺点,提出了基于概率论的贝叶斯公式和模糊识别耦合方法,并应用于河南省某市2013年的水资源脆弱性综合评价中。结果表明,某市2013年的水资源脆弱性评价等级为较不脆弱,与实际情况一致。改进后的贝叶斯公式和模糊识别耦合随机评价方法采用了组合赋权法和相对隶属度综合确定权重,从指标间和指标内部两个方面确定指标权重,使评价结果更加趋于合理。研究成果可为水资源管理和开发提供依据。
[Abstract]:In order to accurately evaluate the vulnerability of water resources, a Bayesian formula based on probability theory and a coupling method of fuzzy recognition are proposed in view of the shortcomings of the combined weighting method, such as insufficient precision, etc. It is applied to the comprehensive assessment of water resources vulnerability in a certain city of Henan province in 2013. The results show that the water resources vulnerability assessment grade of a city in 2013 is not fragile, which is consistent with the actual situation. The improved Bayesian formula and fuzzy recognition coupling random evaluation method adopt the combination weighting method and relative membership degree to determine the weight synthetically. The index weight is determined from the two aspects of the index and the inside of the index, which makes the evaluation result more reasonable. The research results can provide basis for water resources management and development.
【作者单位】：黑龙江省水利水电勘测设计研究院;
【基金】：福建省教育厅科技项目(JA13233) 厦门市重大科技项目(3502Z20111008)
【分类号】：TV213.4

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