基于风险理论的水库汛限水位控制研究

发布时间：2018-05-16 03:44

本文选题：风险理论 + 汛限水位　；参考：《西北农林科技大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：洪水资源化作为一种新的治水理念,成为解决区域水资源短缺的一项有效措施。洪水资源化对水库而言是实现防洪和兴利并举,而汛限水位是水库防洪和兴利的结合点,汛限水位的过高或者过低会直接影响水库的防洪风险和兴利效益,而随着科学技术和人类社会的进步,人们对安全可靠的要求越来越高,因此,研究基于风险理论的水汛限水位控制方式具有重要意义。论文以风险理论为主线,以汛限水位控制为目的,详细研究了水库调度中防洪风险和供水风险的制约因素,发展了水库调度的风险理论体系,构建了较为通用的风险调度模型,并用于陕西省石头河水库汛限水位控制方案的研究。具体研究结果如下:(1)水库汛限水位控制风险分析程序的建立。以经典的风险分析理论入手,系统归纳了水库调度中风险的定义、特征及风险分析的程序。从风险发生的形式、主要因素以及后果三方面详细的对水库调度中的风险进行了识别;从风险发生的概率及后果大小的角度对水库调度风险估计的方法做了深刻的剖析;通过归纳水库调度风险评价方法,论述了水库调度运行中方案的决策。最后论证了水库汛限水位控制和水库调度之间辩证统一的关系:即汛限水位控制需要水库调度来实现,而水库调度的起调水位为汛限水位。在此基础上建立了一套较为完整的汛限水位控制风险分析程序。(2)水库防洪通用风险模型的构建。选取影响水库防洪风险的主要风险因子:洪水、库容、泄流能力、起调水位和风浪,以概率的基本定理为基础建立了防洪风险模型,并从模型因子的数量和模型因子服从的分布函数的角度总结了模型求解方法的适用性。最后以石头河水库为例,选取了校核水位作为风险指标,洪水作为主要风险因子,用频率分析法计算了不同汛限水位方案(798.00m、798.50m、799.00m、799.50m、801.00m)下的风险率,并将10-6作为风险率的允许风险标准,当汛限水位抬高至799.00m时,风险率为9×10-6,依旧在允许范围内。因此可以得出结论:石头河水库库水位799.00m为汛期允许正常蓄水的最高水位。(3)水库供水风险模型的构建。选取影响水库供水风险的主要风险因子:入库径流、兴利库容、调度规则、下游河道生态需水量、蒸发渗漏,同样以概率的基本定理为基础建立水库供水风险模型;同时选取可靠性、易损性和事故周期作为风险评价的指标,通过对石头河水库供水风险因子的分析,选取入库径流作为风险因子,以“1-设计保证率”为允许风险标准,采用长系列兴利调度计算得到结论:石头河水库库水位798.00m为汛期兴利蓄水的最低水位。(4)基于风险理论的汛限水位分期控制运用研究。介绍了传统汛限水位控制运用的缺点,阐述了基于风险理论的分期控制方法的适用性。综合考虑了石头河水库的防洪和供水风险,在对石头河水库汛期分期的基础上,最终得到石头河水库汛限水位控制方案,即在主汛期(7月11日~8月10日)汛限水位为798.00m~799.00m,汛前期(05月21日~07月10日)汛限水位从801.00m逐步降低到799.00m,汛后期(08月11日~09月20日)逐渐从799.00m回升到801.00m,其他时期以801.00m为控制,最后有针对性的提出了水库汛限水位控制中风险降低的措施。
[Abstract]:As a new idea of water treatment, flood resources become an effective measure to solve the shortage of water resources in the region. Flood resource utilization is a combination of flood control and profit making, and the limit water level is the combination of flood control and profit making in the reservoir. The high or too low flood limit water level will directly affect the risk of flood control and benefit benefit of the reservoir. With the progress of science and technology and the progress of human society, people demand more and more safety and reliability. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the limited water level control mode of water flood based on risk theory. The thesis takes the risk theory as the main line and takes the control of the flood limit as the purpose of the flood control, and studies the restriction of the flood risk and the water supply risk in the reservoir scheduling. The risk theory system of reservoir operation is developed and a more general risk scheduling model is constructed and used in the study of the limited water level control scheme of the flood water reservoir in Shaanxi province. The concrete results are as follows: (1) the establishment of the risk analysis program for the control of the reservoir flood limit water level control. The definition of risk in scheduling, the characteristics and the procedure of risk analysis. From the form of risk occurrence, the main factors and the consequences of the three aspects of the risk identification of reservoir scheduling, from the probability of risk occurrence and the size of the consequences of the reservoir scheduling risk estimation of the square method is deeply analyzed, through the induction of reservoir scheduling wind. At last, the dialectical and unified relationship between the control of the limited water level of the reservoir and the dispatching of the reservoir is demonstrated: the control of the limited water level in the flood season requires the operation of the reservoir, and the regulating water level of the reservoir operation is limited to the limit of the flood level. (2) construction of the general risk model of reservoir flood control, select the main risk factors that affect the risk of flood control: flood, reservoir capacity, discharge capacity, water level and wind wave, based on the basic theorem of probability, establish the risk model of flood control, and from the point of view of the quantity of model factors and the distribution function of model factors. Finally, the applicability of the model solution method is summarized. Finally, taking the stone river reservoir as an example, the checking water level is selected as the risk index. As the main risk factor, the flood is used to calculate the risk rate under different flood limit water level schemes (798.00m, 798.50m, 799.00m, 799.50m, 801.00m) by frequency analysis, and 10-6 is used as the risk standard of risk rate. When the limit water level of the flood season is raised to 799.00m, the risk rate is 9 x 10-6, which is still within the allowable range. Therefore, it can be concluded that the water level of the reservoir reservoir of the stone river reservoir is 799.00m as the highest water level to allow the normal water storage in the flood season. (3) the construction of the reservoir water supply risk model. The degree rule, the ecological water demand of the downstream river and the evaporation leakage, also set up the reservoir water supply risk model based on the basic theorem of probability, and select the reliability, vulnerability and the accident cycle as the index of risk assessment, and select the storehouse runoff as the risk factor by the analysis of the risk factors of the water supply of the stone river bank, and the "1- design" The guarantee rate is to allow the risk standard, and it is concluded that the water level 798.00m of the reservoir of the stone river reservoir is the lowest water level of Xingli storage in the flood season. (4) the study on the use of the risk theory for the control of the limited water level in the flood season. The shortcomings of the traditional flood control water level control and transportation are introduced, and the staging control based on the risk theory is expounded. The flood control and water supply risk of the stone river reservoir are taken into consideration. On the basis of the staging of the flood season of the stone river reservoir, the limit water level control scheme for the flood water reservoir is finally obtained. That is, the limit water level of the flood season is 798.00m~799.00m in the main flood season (10 ~8 month of July 11th), and the limit water level of the flood season (05 month 21 days ~07 month) is from 801.00m. Step down to 799.00m, the late flood period (11 ~09 month 20 of 08 months) gradually from 799.00m to 801.00m, and the other period is controlled by 801.00m. Finally, the measures of reducing the risk in the control of the reservoir flood limit water level are put forward.

【学位授予单位】：西北农林科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TV697.13

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