新设国家经济开发区需水预测——以贵安新区为例

发布时间：2018-05-18 01:12

本文选题：水资源 + 需水预测　；参考：《武汉大学学报(工学版)》2017年03期

【摘要】：贵安新区是国务院正式批复设立的第8个国家级新区,其具有新的规划范围、新的发展模式、新的城市功能等特点,用水矛盾突出,需水预测复杂.采用多种预测方法对新区需水量进行预测,主要结论如下:1)需水定额采用多种模型预测,择优而定;2)经济产值采用灰色模型,人口采用Logistic模型,并设置了3种人口增长模式,结果较为合理;3)2020年农业、非农、居民需水、生态需水定额分别为173.12m~3/万元、12.55m~3/万元、132.65L/(人·d)、2.0L/(m2·d),2030年分别为52.14m~3/万元、5.20m~3/万元、135.80L/(人·d)、2.0L/(m2·d).该研究不仅为新区的水资源规划和用水安全提供设计依据和安全保障,而且为其他同类城市需水预测提供借鉴与参考.
[Abstract]:Gui'an New District is the eighth state-level new district approved by the State Council. It has the characteristics of new planning scope, new development model, new urban function, and so on. The contradiction of water use is prominent and the forecasting of water requirement is complicated. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) the water demand quota is forecasted by many models, and the economic output value is predicted by grey model, and the population adopts Logistic model, and three kinds of population growth models are set up. The results were reasonable. In 2020, the quota of water demand for agriculture, non-agriculture, residents and ecological water demand were 173.12m~3/ 10 000 yuan 12.55 mt3 / 10 000 Yuan / 10 000 Yuan 132.65 L / r (52.14m~3/ $5.20% / 10 000 yuan / 10 000 RMB / m ~ 2 / d ~ (2 /) respectively in 2030, it was 135.80 L / r (d ~ (2.0) L ~ (-1) / m ~ 2 / d ~ (2) ~ (-1) ~ (-1) / m ~ (2) respectively. This study not only provides design basis and safety guarantee for water resources planning and water safety in new area, but also provides reference and reference for other similar cities.
【作者单位】：贵州省水利水电勘测设计研究院;武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目(编号:51479140) 贵州省科技计划(编号:黔科合SY字[2015]3006;黔科合重大专项字[2012]6013号)
【分类号】：TV213.4

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