发展循环经济背景下新疆产业用水相对效率的时空分异及预警研究

发布时间：2018-05-20 20:33

本文选题：循环经济 + 产业用水效率　；参考：《新疆财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：新疆是我国缺水地区，研究新疆产业用水效率问题有利于优化水资源的配置，促进资源与经济社会的可持续发展。本文基于2011年的数据，运用灰色关联方法和数据包络分析方法（DEA）对新疆与全国其他省区进行了循环经济发展水平评价及运行效率分析，通过新疆与全国各省区的比较，深入全面地分析新疆的循环经济发展水平以及运行效率。结果显示，新疆循环经济发展水平位列第28名，循环经济有效性为39.7%，处于规模报酬递减阶段。在分析新疆与其他省区差距的基础上进一步研究得出新疆循环经济发展的“软肋”—万元GDP能耗的投入冗余率为16.72%，万元GDP水耗的投入冗余率为37.47%，能耗和水耗的粗放利用制约了新疆循环经济的发展，并得出相应的结论启示，以期为进一步促进新疆循环经济的发展提供决策依据和参考。在对新疆循环经济发展水平和运行效率分析的基础上，发现新疆水耗严重，用水效率低下，进一步研究了新疆产业用水效率与循环经济运行效率的关系，得出两者之间存在正相关关系，产业用水效率每提高1%，循环经济运行效率可以提高52.9%，因此提高新疆产业用水效率是促进新疆循环经济高效发展的有效途径，提高新疆产业用水效率，有利于提高新疆循环经济运行效率。在此背景下，本文选取了生产用水量、从业人员、土地面积、固定资产投资做为输入指标，输出指标为人均GDP，运用DEA模型，对2000-2011年新疆15个地州产业用水相对效率的时空分异进行了研究。研究结果表明不同地区产业用水的相对效率差异较大，经济发达地区的产业用水相对效率明显高于经济落后的地区。以农业为主导产业的地区产业用水效率相对偏低，主要由于农业用水比例较大，水资源浪费严重。各地州应该加强产业结构的调整，加强农业节水，引进与吸收先进节水技术，提高水资源利用效率。在测度了新疆及新疆15个地州产业用水效率后，本文进一步研究了新疆产业用水效率对产业用水变化的驱动效应分解及经济增长和产业结构对产业用水变化的驱动效应分解，并对各个驱动效应进行了时空分异分析：通过基于拉斯拜尔指数的完全分解模型，构建产业用水变化的全要素分解模型，测度了2005年-2011年新疆经济增长效应、产业结构效应与用水效率效应对产业用水变化的驱动效应，分析了水资源消耗的反弹效应，并对各种效应进行了时间分异分析，得出2005年-2011年新疆经济发展极大的拉动了产业用水量，并且拉动力具有很强的刚性，而用水强度和产业结构则对新疆产业用水起到了抑制作用。新疆应该从降低用水强度和产业结构良性调整方面减少水资源的消耗；运用全要素分解模型测度了2005年-2011年新疆15个地州经济增长效应、产业结构效应与用水强度效应对产业用水的驱动效应，并对各种效应进行空间聚类，进而对各种效应进行空间分异分析，结果显示：经济增长对各地州产业用水消耗表现为正向驱动效应，产业结构、用水效率对用水量的驱动效应基本表现为减量效应。各地州虽然效应趋势相同，但效应强度却因地而异。因此，政府需要根据各地州的经济发展、产业结构、用水强度的具体情况来制定相应的调控政策。最后，在上述研究的基础上，本文运用GM1,1模型和灰色关联模型对2012年-2015年新疆产业用水效率进行了预警分析，研究结果显示：新疆产业用水效率逐年提高，警情减缓，但是效率值的提高并不是因为科技进步等因素带来的，而是研究期内产业用水量及GDP增加导致了效率值增大，这种效率值的提高并不是可持续的增长，因此新疆应该加大科技研发力度，引进、吸收及改革用水技术，加强节水设施的建设，切实提高产业用水效率，实现可持续发展。
[Abstract]:Xinjiang is a water shortage area in China. To study the problem of industrial water use efficiency in Xinjiang is conducive to optimizing the allocation of water resources and promoting the sustainable development of resources and economic society. Based on the data of 2011, this paper uses grey correlation method and data envelopment analysis method (DEA) to evaluate the development level of circular economy in Xinjiang and other provinces of the country. And the analysis of operational efficiency, through the comparison between Xinjiang and the provinces and regions in China, the development level and operation efficiency of Xinjiang's circular economy are analyzed in depth and comprehensively. The results show that the development level of Xinjiang circular economy is ranked twenty-eighth, the efficiency of circular economy is 39.7%, and the basis of the analysis of the gap between Xinjiang and other provinces and regions is based on the basis of the analysis of the gap between Xinjiang and other provinces. The further study shows that the "soft rib" of the development of Xinjiang's circular economy - the input redundancy rate of the energy consumption of ten thousand yuan GDP is 16.72%, the redundancy rate of GDP water consumption is 37.47%. The extensive utilization of energy consumption and water consumption restricts the development of the circular economy in Xinjiang, and draws the corresponding conclusions to further promote the development of the circular economy in Xinjiang. The exhibition provides the basis for decision-making and reference.
On the basis of the analysis of the development level and operation efficiency of Xinjiang's circular economy, it is found that the water consumption is serious and the water use efficiency is low in Xinjiang. The relationship between the industrial water efficiency of Xinjiang and the operating efficiency of the circular economy is further studied. It is concluded that there is a positive correlation between the two. The efficiency of the industrial water use can be increased by 1% and the efficiency of the circular economy can be improved. 52.9%, therefore, improving the efficiency of industrial water use in Xinjiang is an effective way to promote the efficient development of the circular economy in Xinjiang. To improve the efficiency of industrial water use in Xinjiang and to improve the efficiency of the circulation economy in Xinjiang. Under this background, the paper selects the production water consumption, the employees, the land surface and the fixed assets investment as the input index, and the output index is the output index. Per capita GDP, using the DEA model, the spatial and temporal differences in the relative efficiency of water use in the 15 prefectures in Xinjiang were studied in 2000-2011 years. The results show that the relative efficiency of water use in different regions is different. The relative efficiency of industrial water use in the developed areas is obviously higher than that in the region after the economy. The water use efficiency of the industry is relatively low, mainly due to the large proportion of agricultural water and the serious waste of water resources. The regional states should strengthen the adjustment of the industrial structure, strengthen the agricultural water saving, introduce and absorb advanced water-saving technologies, and improve the efficiency of water resources utilization.
After measuring the water use efficiency of 15 prefectures in Xinjiang and Xinjiang, this paper further studies the driving effect decomposition and economic growth of the industrial water use efficiency in Xinjiang and the driving effect of industrial structure on the change of industrial water use. The full factorization model of the industrial water use change is constructed by the complete decomposition model of the index. The effect of Xinjiang economic growth, industrial structure effect and water efficiency effect on the change of industrial water use in the year of -2011 in 2005 is measured. The rebound effect of water consumption is analyzed, and the time differentiation of various effects is analyzed, and 20 In the year -2011 of 05 years, the economic development of Xinjiang has greatly promoted the industrial water consumption, and the pull power has a strong rigidity, while the water use intensity and industrial structure have played a restraining effect on the water use of Xinjiang industry. Xinjiang should reduce the consumption of water resources by reducing the intensity of water use and the benign adjustment of industrial structure; using the total factor decomposition model. The economic growth effect of 15 prefectures in Xinjiang in 2005, the driving effect of industrial structure effect and water intensity effect on industrial water use was measured, and the spatial clustering of various effects was carried out, and then the spatial differentiation of various effects was analyzed. The results showed that economic growth was a positive driving effect on the water consumption of various prefectures. Industrial structure, the driving effect of water efficiency on water consumption is basically the reduction effect. Although the state of the state has the same effect trend, the effect intensity varies from ground to ground. Therefore, the government needs to formulate corresponding control policies according to the economic development, industrial structure, and water use intensity of various prefectures.
Finally, on the basis of the above research, this paper uses the GM1,1 model and the grey relational model to make an early warning analysis of the industrial water use efficiency of Xinjiang in 2012 -2015. The results show that the industrial water use efficiency of Xinjiang is increasing year by year and the alarm situation is slowed down, but the improvement of the efficiency is not caused by factors such as scientific and technological progress, but the research period. The increase of water consumption and GDP in the internal industry leads to the increase of efficiency value, which is not a sustainable growth. Therefore, Xinjiang should increase the research and development of science and technology, introduce, absorb and reform water use technology, strengthen the construction of water-saving facilities, improve the efficiency of industrial water use and achieve sustainable development.
【学位授予单位】：新疆财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV213.4;F127

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