计及弃水风险的水库优化调度研究

发布时间：2018-05-25 10:23

本文选题：优化调度 + 弃水风险　；参考：《水力发电学报》2017年09期

【摘要】：弃水风险是水电站在运营管理中考虑的重要因素之一,在传统的水库调度中,往往是以发电量最大或发电收入最大为目标函数建立模型,虽然理论上可以得到最优解,但是由于没有考虑弃水风险的存在,故这些目标函数在实际情况中不太适用。因此,本文首先通过流域历史径流资料统计计算时段可能弃水量,然后通过水量平衡方程由时段可能弃水量推算时段实际弃水量,最终在满足一定水电站弃水风险的条件下求解梯级水电站年最大发电量。本文以乌溪江流域梯级水电站为工程背景,以考虑弃水风险模型和不考虑弃水风险模型进行对比,最终计算结果表明模型可以给出具有较好风险收益的调度决策方案。
[Abstract]:The risk of water abandonment is one of the important factors considered in the operation and management of hydropower stations. In the traditional reservoir operation, the model is usually established with the objective function of the maximum generating capacity or the maximum generation income, although the optimal solution can be obtained theoretically. However, these objective functions are not applicable in practice because the risk of water abandonment is not considered. Therefore, in this paper, the possible water discards in the period of time are calculated by statistical analysis of the historical runoff data of the watershed, and then the actual quantity of the discarded water in the period of time is calculated by the equation of water balance. Finally, the maximum annual output of cascade hydropower stations is solved under the condition of satisfying the water abandonment risk of certain hydropower stations. Taking the cascade hydropower stations in Wuxi River Basin as the engineering background, this paper compares the risk model of water disposal with the model without considering the risk of water disposal. The final calculation results show that the model can provide a decision making scheme with better risk return.
【作者单位】：三峡大学水利与环境学院;水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(51409152)
【分类号】：TV697.1

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