引汉济渭调水工程水库群调度和水资源配置方案评价研究

发布时间：2018-05-26 00:22

本文选题：引汉济渭工程 + 指标体系　；参考：《西安理工大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：关中地区因其特殊的历史地位和地理位置一直是陕西省的政治、经济、文化中心,人口、经济增长迅速,导致用水量巨大;同时,又是资源性缺水地区,实现用水的自给自足较为困难。因此,引汉济渭调水工程是缓解渭河流域关中地区近中期水资源短缺的重要措施之一。论文以引汉济渭调水工程为背景,以优选水库群调度和配置方案为目标,开展相关方案的评价及风险评估研究,主要目的是为跨流域调水工程的建设施工、运行管理提供技术支持。论文取得的主要研究成果有:(1)针对水库群调度目标和受水区水资源可持续利用准则,采用专家咨询法构建了水库群调度方案评价指标体系和水资源配置方案评价指标体系。(2)对引汉济渭调水工程的调度和配置目标进行了分析,建立了模糊优选模型、基于NMF的方案优选模型和基于AGA的投影寻踪模型三种方案评价模型。(3)采用模糊优选模型、基于NMF的方案优选模型和基于AGA的投影寻踪模型三种方案评价模型,评价了多年平均调水15亿m3情境下的4个单目标调度方案,并对三种评价方法的评价结果进行一致性分析,得到了水库调度的最优方案。结果显示:黄金峡水库优先供水,三河口水库作为补充水源的模式下,以多年平均发电量最大作为目标得到的调度方案最优。(4)对引汉济渭工程每年调水15亿m3的引汉水水量配置的6种模型方案,采用模糊优选模型、基于NMF的方案优选模型和基于AGA的投影寻踪模型三种方案评价模型进行配置方案评价,并对三种评价方法的评价结果进行一致性分析,得到了配置的最优模型。结果表明:在供需平衡模型下得到的配置方案最优。(5)对水资源配置系统的风险进行了定性分析,识别了引汉济渭跨流域调水工程的风险因子,建立了水库群调度方案的风险评价指标体系,采用逼近理想解的排序方法得到了各调度方案的风险值。(6)结合方案评价和风险评价的结果,综合分析水库群调度方案的效果和风险,为决策提供依据,最后推荐了水资源调配的合理模型和最佳方案。
[Abstract]:Because of its special historical status and geographical location, Guanzhong region has been the political, economic and cultural center of Shaanxi Province, with rapid population and economic growth, resulting in huge water consumption; at the same time, it is also a resource-deficient region. It is difficult to achieve self-sufficiency in water use. Therefore, the diversion project is one of the important measures to alleviate the water shortage in Guanzhong area of Weihe River Basin. With the background of the diversion project from Han to Jiwei and the optimal reservoir group dispatching and allocation scheme, the paper carries out the evaluation and risk assessment of the relevant schemes, the main purpose of which is to construct and construct the water diversion project across the river basin. Operation management provides technical support. The main research results obtained in this paper are as follows: 1) aiming at the target of reservoir group operation and the criteria of sustainable utilization of water resources in the receiving area, The evaluation index system of reservoir group dispatching scheme and the evaluation index system of water resources allocation scheme are constructed by using expert consultation method. The dispatching and allocation objectives of water diversion project from Han to Jiwei are analyzed, and the fuzzy optimal selection model is established. Fuzzy optimal selection model, NMF based scheme optimal selection model and projection pursuit model based on AGA are used to evaluate the three schemes, which are based on NMF and projection pursuit model based on AGA. In this paper, four single-objective dispatching schemes with an average water transfer of 1.5 billion m ~ 3 for many years are evaluated, and the consistency analysis of the evaluation results of the three evaluation methods is carried out, and the optimal scheme of reservoir operation is obtained. The results show that the Jinxia Reservoir gives priority to water supply, and the Sanhekou Reservoir is used as a supplementary water source. The optimal scheduling scheme, which takes the maximum annual average power generation as the target, adopts the fuzzy optimal selection model for the six models of water diversion water allocation of 1.5 billion m3 per year for the diversion of water from Han to Jiwei projects. The optimal scheme evaluation model based on NMF and projection pursuit model based on AGA is used to evaluate the configuration scheme. The consistency analysis of the evaluation results of the three evaluation methods is carried out, and the optimal configuration model is obtained. The results show that the optimal allocation scheme based on the model of supply and demand is optimal. The risk of water resources allocation system is qualitatively analyzed, and the risk factors of water diversion project between Han and Ji-Wei river basins are identified. The risk evaluation index system of reservoir group dispatching scheme is established, and the results of project evaluation and risk evaluation are obtained by using the ranking method approaching the ideal solution. The effect and risk of reservoir group dispatching scheme are analyzed synthetically to provide the basis for decision making. At last, the reasonable model and the best scheme of water resources allocation are recommended.
【学位授予单位】：西安理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TV213.4;TV697.12

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