基于二维水动力学过程的洪泛区避难逃生路线优化模型及应用

发布时间：2018-05-31 01:08

  本文选题：水动力学模型 + 洪泛区　； 参考：《水利学报》2017年04期

【摘要】：在洪水风险管理中,通常认为逃生距离与淹没水深是灾民避难迁移的控制因素,而洪水泛滥过程以及人员所在位置的时空分布对避难逃生时机与路径选择会产生较大影响。在构建的洪泛区避难逃生路线优化模型中,采用二维水动力学模型,模拟洪泛区的洪水演进过程;采用Dijkstra算法推求最短路线,考虑水流对逃生速度的影响,根据洪水中人体的稳定程度及最迟逃生时刻确定最优避难逃生路线。该模型计算结果能为指导洪泛区灾民逃生及路网选址提供参考依据。以1958年7月和1982年8月兰考东明滩区漫滩洪水为例,分析了漫滩洪水中人体危险程度变化情况,比较了2场洪水中3个受灾点最优避难逃生路线的位置及最迟逃生时刻。计算结果表明:根据最优路线开展逃生将为灾民赢得3~6 h的逃生时间;2场洪水中灾民逃生的最优路线位置相同,可据此适当调整已建路网或规划逃生专用的通道;因1958年洪水的洪峰及水量均较大,所以最迟逃生时间较1982年提前2~3 h。
[Abstract]:In flood risk management, it is generally considered that escape distance and submerged depth are the controlling factors of refugee migration, while flood process and the spatial and temporal distribution of personnel location will have a great impact on the timing and path of escape. In the optimized model of escape route in flood floodplain area, a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model is used to simulate the flood routing process, and Dijkstra algorithm is used to calculate the shortest route, considering the influence of water flow on escape speed. The optimal escape route is determined according to the stability of human body in flood and the latest escape time. The results of the model can be used as a reference for guiding the flood victims to escape and select the location of the road network. Taking floodplain flood in Donming beach area of Lankao in July 1958 and August 1982 as an example, the changes of human body dangerous degree in floodplain flood were analyzed, and the location of optimal escape route and the last escape time of 3 disaster spots in two floods were compared. The results show that the optimal route location of the disaster victims in the two floods will be the same when the escape time is 3 ~ 6 hours according to the optimal route, and the road network can be adjusted or the special escape passage can be planned accordingly. Because the Hong Feng and the amount of water in the 1958 flood were both larger, the latest escape time was 2 ~ 3 hours earlier than that in 1982.
【作者单位】： 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室;中国水利水电科学研究院防洪抗旱减灾研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51379156) 水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201401038)
【分类号】：TV87
，

本文编号：1957635