基于SWAT模型的泰山药乡小流域径流模拟研究

发布时间：2018-06-01 10:44

本文选题：径流模拟 + 土地利用变化　；参考：《山东农业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：水是人类生存和发展必不可少的自然资源,其在社会经济发展中扮演者重要的角色,人们依水生存和发展。但是随着人口增加、人类生活水平提高和经济发展,人类对水资源的需求量越来越多,与此同时河湖等水体污染日益严重,使可用水资源量持续下降,进而更加剧了人类与水资源的矛盾,结果是直接影响到了水资源的可持续利用。水生态文明建设是一系列庞大而复杂的工程,面对生态文明建设的需求与新时期水利的改革发展,需要解决一些新的基础科学问题。河湖生态健康评价方法理论即是水生态文明建设的一个基础科学问题,然而现阶段河湖生态健康评价方法理论很多停留在定性分析上,量值的评价比较少。分布式水文模型SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool)是1994年由美国农业部(USDA)农业研究中心开发的流域水文模型。该模型具有很强物理机制,可以模拟较大范围复杂流域内的水文过程来预测流域产水、产沙和水环境污染等过程对气候、管理措施、土地利用等的响应。药乡小流域位于山东省泰安市城市水源地黄前流域,是泰山区域的典型小流域。本文选择SWAT模型来模拟药乡小流域的径流情况,分析了该模型在药乡小流域的适应性,同时定量分析了人类影响该小流域的生态情况下的径流变化情况,其主要研究内容有： (1)总结了SWAT模型的国内外研究现状,简要介绍了SWAT模型的发展、原理和结构。 (2)以国家林业局“泰山森林生态定位研究站”较全面系统观测的药乡小流域为研究对象,利用SWAT模型结合该流域的数字高程图、土地利用图、土壤图、土地利用数据、土壤数据、气象数据与径流数据等建立了适合该小流域的分布式水文模型。 (3)对药乡小流域进行月平均流量模拟,采用纳西系数作为模型精准度评价标准,并分析了模拟值与实测值的相关性,取得了较好的模拟效果。结果表明,SWAT模型适用于药乡小流域的径流模拟。 (4)确定SCS径流曲线系数(CN2)、土壤蒸发补偿系数(ESCO)、基流α系数(ALPHA_BF)、土壤可利用水量(SOL_AWC)、浅层地下水径(GWQMN)和饱和水力传导系数(SOL_K)等是该小流域对径流影响较大的SWAT模型参数,合理调整这些参数,使模型具有更高的模拟精度。 (5)通过设定8种人类影响土地利用的情景,得出药乡小流域出口处总径流量的变化情况,以反映人类影响下的该小流域径流的变化规律,进而定量反映出该小流域的生态健康变化趋势。通过本文研究内容以期为泰山的近似小流域生态健康评价提供一定的依据,同时也为药乡小流域的水资源管理、生态建设和保护提供依据,以促进山东省的水生态文明建设。
[Abstract]:Water is an essential natural resource for human survival and development, which plays an important role in social and economic development. However, with the increase of population, the improvement of human living standard and the development of economy, the demand for water resources is increasing. At the same time, the pollution of rivers, lakes and other water bodies is becoming more and more serious, which makes the quantity of available water resources continue to decline. Furthermore, the contradiction between human beings and water resources is aggravated, and the sustainable utilization of water resources is directly affected. The construction of water ecological civilization is a series of huge and complex projects. In the face of the demands of ecological civilization construction and the reform and development of water conservancy in the new period, some new basic scientific problems need to be solved. The theory of river and lake ecological health evaluation method is a basic scientific problem in the construction of water ecological civilization. However, at present, many theories of river and lake ecological health evaluation method remain on the qualitative analysis, and the evaluation of quantity is relatively few. The distributed hydrological model SWAT and Water Assessment Tool) is a watershed hydrological model developed by USDA-Agricultural Research Center of USDA in 1994. The model has a strong physical mechanism and can simulate the hydrological processes in a large complex watershed to predict the response of the processes of water production sediment production and water environment pollution to climate management measures and land use. Yaoxiang small watershed is a typical small watershed in Mount Tai area, which is located in Huangqian basin, the urban water source of Taian City, Shandong Province. In this paper, the SWAT model is chosen to simulate the runoff situation of the Yanchang small watershed, and the adaptability of the model is analyzed. At the same time, the runoff variation under the ecological condition of human being affecting the small watershed is quantitatively analyzed. The main research contents are as follows: 1) the research status of SWAT model at home and abroad is summarized, and the development, principle and structure of SWAT model are briefly introduced. (2) taking the Yaoxiang small watershed, which was observed systematically by Taishan Forest Ecological location Research Station of State Forestry Administration, as the research object, using SWAT model to combine the digital elevation map, land use map, soil map and land use data of the watershed. Soil data, meteorological data and runoff data were used to establish a distributed hydrological model for the small watershed. The Naxi coefficient is used as the evaluation criterion of the model accuracy, and the correlation between the simulated value and the measured value is analyzed, and a good simulation result is obtained. The results show that the SWAT model is suitable for runoff simulation of Yaoxiang small watershed. (4) determination of SCS runoff curve coefficient (CN2N), soil evaporation compensation coefficient (Esco), base flow 伪 coefficient (ALPHABFN), soil water availability (SOLQMN), shallow groundwater diameter (GWQMN) and saturated hydraulic conductivity coefficient (SOLK) are the parameters of SWAT model which have a great influence on runoff in this small watershed. By adjusting these parameters reasonably, the model has higher simulation accuracy. 5) by setting up 8 scenarios of human influence on land use, the change of total runoff at the outlet of Yaoxiang small watershed is obtained to reflect the change law of runoff in this small watershed under the influence of human being. Furthermore, the change trend of ecological health in this small watershed is reflected quantitatively. The purpose of this paper is to provide some basis for the assessment of ecological health in the approximate small watershed of Mount Tai, and also for the management, ecological construction and protection of water resources in Yaoxiang small watershed, in order to promote the construction of water ecological civilization in Shandong Province.
【学位授予单位】：山东农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV121

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