南水北调河北省受水区需水预测与水资源配置研究

发布时间：2018-06-06 13:36

本文选题：需水预测 + 水资源配置模型　；参考：《中国水利水电科学研究院》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：由于水资源供需矛盾的升级,其竞争性也日益凸显,地区间与行业间的合理配置成为水资源工作者的重要任务,此项工作不仅会影响国民经济的发展,还对保证社会公平性有较强的意义。水资源分配工作主要分为两大方面,一是对本地区未来的用水规模和用水特点进行分析预测,这是后续工作的基础,二是通过设置合理的规则,遵循一定的原则,对本地区的水源进行配置计算。随着信息技术的发展,我国对需水预测和水资源配置的研究从理论到实践都取得了丰硕的成果。南水北调工程实施后,为对河北省受水区内未来的水资源配置情况进行模拟计算,以设置更加合理的分水规则,本文针对此地区的特点,分别进行了需水预测工作和水资源配置模型的建立。本文将需水部门分为六类,在对其历史数据进行规律分析的基础上,分别采用不同的预测方法进行计算。对于城镇生活用水和农村生活用水,采用用水定额预测与人口规模预测相结合的方法；工业用水预测是先用改进的数学模型进行万元工业增加值取水量的预测,然后依据本地区的工业发展规划,预测工业增加值,最后二者相乘得到工业需水量：农业需水预测是在提取本地区农业需水量主要影响因素后,综合考虑自然和人为因素建立预测模型；城镇生态需水和农村生态需水则是根据地区规划、绿地用水定额和面积等计算。各项需水预测工作所采用的模型均经过本地历史数据的检验,具有较高的可靠性。最终,预测2030年河北省受水区内总需水量约为156亿m3,比重最高的农业需水占63%,其次为工业用水,占18%,用水结构与现状年相比有很大变化。在认真学习和总结前人研究成果的基础上,本文建立了通用性水资源配置模拟模型,采用统一的单元存储格式、二维矩阵表示单元关系等方法提高模型使用的便利性。模型对水库、用水单元和分水节点分别采用不同的计算程序,由参数来体现决策对水量分配的作用,其中水库供水不再采用输入的规则而是用可供水量与下游需水相结合的算法供水,提高了水库供水的合理性。针对受水区地下水超采严重的特点,本文主要以外调水和地下水的供水关系为重点,对不同的水平年,设置多个计算方案,对各方案结果进行对比分析。综合考虑生态保护与经济发展,推荐地下水与外调水联合供水方案,其中地下水仅以其可供水量为最大供水能力,完全不超采,外调水以其最大调水量供水,模拟结果表明,在此方案下,2030年受水区基本达到供需平衡,缺水率仅为5%左右。本文还对推荐方案下主要水库的供水情况进行了介绍,以供水库管理参考。实践表明,该模型操作方便,输出数据详细,结果清晰,计算合理,具有较高的实用价值。
[Abstract]:Due to the upgrading of the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources, its competition is becoming increasingly prominent. The rational allocation between regions and industries has become an important task for water resources workers. This work will not only affect the development of the national economy. It is also of great significance to ensure social fairness. The distribution of water resources is mainly divided into two aspects. One is to analyze and predict the scale and characteristics of water use in the future in the region, which is the basis of the follow-up work, and the other is to follow certain principles by setting up reasonable rules. The allocation of water sources in this area is calculated. With the development of information technology, the research on water demand prediction and water resources allocation in China has made great achievements both in theory and practice. After the implementation of the South-to-North Water transfer Project, in order to simulate and calculate the future allocation of water resources in Hebei Province, in order to set up more reasonable water distribution rules, this paper aims at the characteristics of this area. The prediction of water demand and the establishment of water resources allocation model were carried out respectively. In this paper, water demand departments are divided into six categories. Based on the analysis of their historical data, different forecasting methods are used to calculate them. For urban and rural domestic water, the method of combining water quota prediction with population scale prediction is adopted, and industrial water consumption prediction is based on an improved mathematical model to predict the water intake of ten thousand yuan of industrial added value. Then according to the industrial development plan of the region, the industrial added value is forecasted. Finally, the industrial water demand is obtained by multiplying the two. The agricultural water demand prediction is after extracting the main influencing factors of the agricultural water demand in this area. A prediction model was established considering both natural and human factors, while the ecological water requirement of urban and rural areas was calculated according to regional planning, green land water quota and area. The models used in water demand prediction are verified by local historical data and have high reliability. Finally, it is predicted that the total water demand in Hebei Province will be about 15.6 billion m3 in 2030. The agricultural water demand with the highest proportion is 63, followed by industrial water consumption, accounting for 18 percent. The water use structure has a great change compared with the current year. On the basis of studying and summing up the previous research results, a universal water resources allocation simulation model is established in this paper, which uses a unified cell storage format and a two-dimensional matrix to express the unit relationship, and so on to improve the convenience of using the model. The model uses different calculation programs for reservoir, water unit and water diversion node, and the parameters are used to reflect the effect of decision on water distribution. The rationality of reservoir water supply is improved by using the algorithm of combining the available water supply and the downstream water demand instead of using the input rules for the reservoir water supply. In view of the serious overexploitation of groundwater in the receiving area, this paper focuses on the relationship between the transfer of water and the water supply of groundwater, sets up several calculation schemes for different level years, and makes a comparative analysis of the results of each scheme. Considering the ecological protection and economic development, the combined water supply scheme of groundwater and external water transfer is recommended, in which the maximum water supply capacity of groundwater is only its available water supply, and it is not overtaken completely, and the water supply by external transfer water is supplied by its maximum amount of water transfer. The simulation results show that, Under this scheme, the supply and demand balance was basically achieved in the water-receiving area in 2030, and the water shortage rate was only about 5%. This paper also introduces the water supply of the main reservoir under the recommended scheme for the reference of reservoir management. The practice shows that the model is easy to operate, the output data is detailed, the results are clear, the calculation is reasonable, and the model is of high practical value.
【学位授予单位】：中国水利水电科学研究院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TV213.4

【参考文献】