气候变化对美国麻州水资源系统供水量影响风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-06-20 00:27

本文选题：气候变化 + 水资源系统　；参考：《哈尔滨工业大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：自工业革命以来，大气中的二氧化碳含量不断增加，改变了气候系统原有的能量平衡，致使全球气候发生改变。水循环系统作为气候系统的一个重要组成部分，在全球气候系统发生变化的同时，水循环系统也必将受到影响，最终导致全球水资源的时空分配发生变化。目前，气候变化对水资源的影响受到了国际上的广泛关注，已开展了大量研究。现有的研究多利用大气环流模式（GCM）获得未来气象要素数据，直接输入到相应的水文模型或者水资源模型中来评价气候变化对水资源系统的影响，但此类方法在减少GCM不确定性及解决GCM数据有限性问题方面存在缺陷。针对目前研究方法体系的不足，本研究提出一种新的评价方法——反向法，该方法不仅能够充分利用多种GCM来减少单一GCM所带来的不确定性问题，而且能够有效结合GCM数据准确和随机模型产生数据量大的优势，并可同时量化气候要素和水文要素的统计要素对水资源系统的影响。本研究将该方法应用于美国麻州水资源系统（MWRA）和我国云南省骑马岭水库，取得了较为满意的结果。主要研究内容和结论如下：（1）通过对MWRA水资源系统进行深入分析，构建了MWRA水资源模型，同时利用基准期的观测数据对模型的模拟能力进行了检验。（2）根据水资源数据的特点，构建了逐一标准化时间序列模型（ARMA），利用MWRA水资源系统中1950~1999年Quabbin水库的流域净流量（地表径流-水库实际蒸散量），，对ARMA模型和周期时间序列模型（PARMA）的参数进行估计，通过对比证明ARMA模型的模拟能力整体上优于PARMA模型。（3）为了进行全面研究，分别选取IPCC提供的高、中、低三种温室气体排放情景即A2情景、A1B情景和B1情景，共112种GCM对MWRA水资源系统所在区域的降水量和气温进行预测，多数GCM结果显示该区域在2050s时段(2036~2065年)和2080s时段(2066~2095年)的降水量和气温较基准期(1950~1999年)有所增加。（4）利用MWRA水资源系统在基准期的观测值对水文模型ABCD的参数进行了校验，利用GCM获得的气象要素驱动ABCD水文模型来对MWRA水资源系统所在区域未来水文变化进行模拟预测，结果显示月流域净流量均值与基准年观测值的差值在不同月份存在差异，年流域净流量的均值与基准年观测值的差值则无显著变化。（5）选用可靠度作为MWRA水资源系统的评级指数，采用反向法对MWRA水资源系统在未来两个时段由气候变化引起的风险进行评价，最终结果显示：当流域净流量年际标准方差为基准期观测值的100%、110%、120%、130%和140%的情况下，未来两个时段MWRA水资源系统在A2情景、A1B情景和B1情景下均呈现为高风险值。麻州水资源委员会应根据情况对MWRA水资源系统进行必要的调整以应对未来气候变化可能带来的负面影响。（6）为探究反向法的适用性，将反向法应用于我国云南省境内的骑马岭水库，通过已建立的气候响应方程和可靠度指数的阈值，对关键因子的阈值进行了识别：在基准期（1960~2004年）观测值年际标准方差100%、110%、120%、130%和140%的情况下，流域净流量年均值的阈值分别为基准期观测值的92.8%、94.3%、95.9%、97.4%和99.0%，阈值的识别为该地区制定政策减弱气候变化对水库影响提供了理论依据。
[Abstract]:Since the industrial revolution , the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere has continuously increased , the original energy balance of the climate system has been changed , and the global climate has changed . As an important part of the climate system , the water circulation system will also be affected , which will eventually lead to the change of the space - time distribution of global water resources . At present , the impact of climate change on water resources has been widely concerned internationally , and a lot of research has been carried out .

This paper presents a new evaluation method _ inverse method to reduce GCM uncertainty and solve the problem of GCM data limitation . This method can not only make full use of multiple GCM to reduce the uncertainty caused by single GCM , but also quantify the influence of climatic elements and hydrological factors on water resources system .

( 1 ) By deeply analyzing MWRA water resources system , MWRA water resources model is constructed , and the simulation ability of the model is checked by using the observation data of the reference period .

( 2 ) Based on the characteristics of water resources data , a standardized time series model is constructed . The water net flow ( surface runoff - reservoir actual evapotranspiration ) of Quabbin reservoir in MWRA water resources system is used to estimate the parameters of the model ( PARMA ) model and the cycle time series model ( PARMA ) . By comparison , the simulation ability is better than the PARMA model .

( 3 ) In order to carry out a comprehensive study , three GHG emission scenarios , namely , A2 Scenario , A1B Scenario and B1 Scenario , were selected for IPCC , and 112 species of GCM predicted the precipitation and air temperature in the area where MWRA water resources were located . Most of the GCM results showed an increase in precipitation and air temperature during 2050s ( 2036 - 2065 ) and 2080s ( 2066 - 2095 ) ( 1950 - 1999 ) .

( 4 ) Using the MWRA water resources system , the parameters of the hydrological model ABCD are verified by using the observation value of the water resource system of MWRA , and the hydrological model of the water resources system in MWRA is predicted by using the meteorological elements obtained by GCM . The results show that the difference between the mean value of net flow and the observation value in the baseline year is different in different months , and the difference between the mean value of the annual net flow and the observation value of the baseline year has no significant change .

( 5 ) Using the reliability as the rating index of MWRA water resources system , the risk of MWRA water resources system in the next two periods is evaluated by reverse method . The results show that the MWRA water resources system in the next two periods is high - risk value in the context of A2 , A1B and B1 scenarios when the annual standard variance of net flow in the basin is 100 % , 110 % , 120 % , 130 % and 140 % .

( 6 ) In order to study the applicability of the inversion method , the threshold of the key factor is identified by applying the inverse method to the horse - riding ridge reservoir in Yunnan Province , and the threshold value of the key factor is identified through the established threshold of the climate response equation and the reliability index : the threshold value of the annual mean value of the net flow in the basin is 92.8 % , 94.3 % , 95.9 % , 97.4 % and 99 . 0 % of the reference period respectively , and the recognition of the threshold provides a theoretical basis for the region to formulate policies to reduce the influence of climate change on the reservoir .
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV213.4

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