低频气候变化引起的珠江流域年均和洪峰流量变化特征及灵敏度分析

发布时间：2018-06-21 02:50

本文选题：低频气候变化 + 年平均流量　；参考：《中山大学学报(自然科学版)》2017年01期

【摘要】：低频气候变化是引起内陆径流年际和年代际变化的一个重要驱动因子。通过分析El Ni泺o/Southern Oscillation(ENSO)、North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)、Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD)和Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)等主要低频气候因子对珠江流域年均(Q_(ann))流量和洪峰流量(Q_(max))的影响及其影响量级,研究结果表明珠江流域流量受到低频气候因子的显著影响,但影响强度的时间平稳性与趋势性有显著区域差异。对相应区域具有持续显著影响及相关强度呈显著上升趋势的气候因子可以作为Q_(ann)和Q_(max)的预测信号。低频气候因子位于不同的相位,导致珠江流域流量发生相应的变化:负相位ENSO、NAO和PDO易致较低Q_(ann),导致水文干旱风险的增加;而正相位的ENSO、IOD及负相位NAO和PDO易引发较高Q_(max),导致极端洪灾风险增加。对比Q_(ann)和Q_(max),Q_(max)对于气候指标变化的灵敏度要高于Q_(ann),Q_(max)灵敏度高于Q_(ann)的面积比例分别为56%、59%、71%和36%。研究对于根据低频气候变化信号预测珠江流域Q_(ann)与Q_(max)及珠江流域洪旱灾害的预报与预警具有重要理论意义与实际应用价值。
[Abstract]:Low frequency climate change is an important driving factor for interannual and Interdecadal variation of inland runoff. By analyzing the effects of the main low-frequency climatic factors, such as El Ni / O / Southern O / O / ENSO on the annual Hong Feng volume and the Hong Feng flow rate of the Pearl River Basin, the order of magnitude of the influence of the main low-frequency climatic factors, such as the El Ni / O / O / N Atlantic Oscillations and Indian Ocean Diploe (IOD) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation / PDO), on the annual volume of Atlantic and Hong Feng flows in the Pearl River Basin, The results show that the flow in the Pearl River Basin is significantly affected by the low frequency climatic factors, but the temporal stability and the trend of the influence intensity are significantly different from each other. The climatic factors, which have a continuous and significant effect on the corresponding region and have a significant upward trend of the relative intensity, can be used as the prediction signals of QS _ (n) and QS _ (max). The low frequency climate factor is located in different phases, which leads to the corresponding change of the flow in the Pearl River basin: the negative phase ENSONAO and PDO are easy to lead to lower Q _ S _ N _ N, resulting in the increase of the risk of hydrological drought; The positive phase ENSOOIOD and the negative phase NAO and PDO tend to lead to higher QS max, resulting in an increase in the risk of extreme flooding. The sensitivity to the change of climate index is higher than the sensitivity of Q / T / Q / T / Q / T / Q / T / Q / T / Q / T / Q / T / Q / T / Q / T / Q / T / Q / T / Q / T / Q / T / Q / T / Q / T / Q / C / Q / T / Q / C / C / Q / C / Q / C / C / Q / C / C The study is of great theoretical significance and practical application value for forecasting and early warning of flood and drought disasters in Pearl River Basin based on low-frequency climate change signals.
【作者单位】：中山大学地理科学与规划学院∥华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室;北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室∥地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室∥减灾与应急管理研究院;
【基金】：国家杰出青年科学基金(51425903) 香港特别行政区研究资助局(CUHK441313) 安徽省自然科学基金(1408085MKL23) 安徽省教育厅高校自然科学基金(KJ2016A851)
【分类号】：P333;P339

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