滨海地区地表水（水库）预警理论及方法研究

发布时间：2018-06-21 20:53

本文选题：滨海地区 + 水库供水预警　；参考：《山东大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：水是生命之源、生产之要、生态之基,既不可或缺,又无以替代。进入21世纪,随着人口的增加、城市的扩张和错误的水资源开发利用观念,水资源问题日益严重,已经成为制约国家和地区发展的瓶颈。在我国,尤其是在山东滨海地区,水资源问题尤其突出。滨海地区是山东省经济发展的核心区域,在滨海地区做好水利发展专项规划,可以有效的缓解水资源短缺现状,有利于提高水资源和水环境的承载能力,有利于社会经济的协调发展,有利于促进水资源的可持续发展。本文在阅读了大量文献和总结分析当前的成果的基础上,基于“三条红线”用水总量控制红线,率先在山东滨海地区(即半岛蓝色经济区)展开了地表水(即水库)供水预警研究,并以乳山市的四座大中型水库为例,验证了地表水供水预警的可行性。本文主要完成以下工作： (1)建立了水库供水预警体系,科学确定了警戒线与警戒区。以最严格水资源管理为理论基础,结合用户需水、水库可供水量和水库主要供水用途等实际情况,依据划分警戒线与警戒区的基本原则,建立水库供水预警机制,分别在给出了中型水库预警期为三个月和非汛期两种情况下点预警和过程预警的警戒线确定方法,划分出警戒区域。针对大型水库多年调节的特点,本文在中型水库三个月、非汛期预警期的基础上,将预警期延长为一年,给出了警戒线的确定办法,并引入了模糊概念中“亦此亦彼”的概念,利用相对隶属度模型对预警级别进行了评价,体现出预警程度的渐变性。 (2)选择了工程实例作为研究对象,验证了水库供水预警的可行性。在对乳山市4座大中型水库多年水文资料进行整理的基础上,将理论成果应用于4座水库,根据是否考虑非汛期来水,对水库进行了静态和动态预警,又根据选取计算预警起点的不同,对水库进行了点预警和过程预警,为水库供水的合理调度提供参考,对保障城乡居民生活、工农业生产和生态用水安全具有重要意义。 (3)预警管理能有效缓解水资源短缺现状,使有限的水资源发挥了更大的经济效益、社会效益和生态效益。预警管理中,针对水库蓄水量、用水户用水量及来水量的变化情况不断调整供水策略,使水资源的利用更加科学合理；尤其以两年为预警期时,有预见性的对水量进行调度,能有效的缓解枯水年的用水压力,缓解了水资源短缺问题,使有限的水资源实现利益最大化。 (4)由于预警问题比较复杂,仍有几个问题需要继续深入。当区域降水不均匀时,可能出现部分水库供水量大于需水量、部分水库需水量大于供水量的情况,需要建立水库之间的联系,进行联合调度；水库供水涉及城乡居民生活、工业、农业和生态等诸多领域,关系到经济发展、社会稳定和可持续发展问题,需要建立多学科间的连接,寻求更具代表性的综合指标。
[Abstract]:Water is the source of life, production, ecological basis, both indispensable and irreplaceable. In the 21st century, with the increase of population, the expansion of cities and the wrong concept of water resources exploitation and utilization, the problem of water resources is becoming more and more serious, which has become the bottleneck restricting the development of countries and regions. In our country, especially in the coastal area of Shandong Province, the problem of water resources is especially prominent. Binhai area is the core area of economic development in Shandong Province. Making special plans for water conservancy development in coastal areas can effectively alleviate the current situation of water resources shortage and help to improve the carrying capacity of water resources and water environment. It is beneficial to the coordinated development of society and economy and to the sustainable development of water resources. On the basis of reading a large number of documents and summarizing and analyzing the current results, this paper based on the "three red lines" to control the total amount of water red line, The early warning study of surface water supply was carried out in the coastal area of Shandong Province (i.e. Peninsula Blue Economic Zone), and the feasibility of surface water supply warning was verified by taking four large and medium-sized reservoirs in Rushan City as an example. The main work of this paper is as follows: 1) the early warning system of reservoir water supply has been established, and the warning line and warning area have been scientifically determined. Based on the theory of the strictest management of water resources, combined with the actual conditions such as the user's water demand, the water supply capacity of the reservoir and the main water supply uses of the reservoir, and according to the basic principle of dividing the warning line and the warning area, the early warning mechanism of the reservoir water supply is established. In this paper, the methods of determining the warning line of point early warning and process early warning are given respectively under the condition that the early warning period is three months and the non flood period is two kinds of conditions, and the warning area is divided. In view of the characteristics of the regulation of large reservoirs for many years, this paper extends the early warning period to one year on the basis of the three-month, non-flood season early warning period of medium-sized reservoirs, and gives the method of determining the warning line, and introduces the concept of "also this and that" in the fuzzy concept. The relative membership degree model is used to evaluate the early warning level, which reflects the gradual change of the early warning degree. The engineering example is selected as the research object, which verifies the feasibility of the reservoir water supply early warning. Based on the analysis of hydrological data of 4 large and medium-sized reservoirs in Rushan City, the theoretical results are applied to 4 reservoirs. According to whether to consider the non-flood season water, the static and dynamic early warning of the reservoirs is carried out. According to the difference of calculating the starting point of early warning, this paper carries on the point early warning and the process early warning to the reservoir, which provides the reference for the reasonable operation of the reservoir water supply and ensures the life of the urban and rural residents. Industrial and agricultural production and ecological water security are of great significance. Early warning management can effectively alleviate the current situation of water resources shortage, and make limited water resources play a greater economic, social and ecological benefits. In early warning management, according to the change of water consumption and water quantity, the water supply strategy is constantly adjusted to make the utilization of water resources more scientific and reasonable, especially when the early warning period is two years, the quantity of water is scheduled to be controlled with foresight. It can effectively alleviate the pressure of water use in dry years, alleviate the shortage of water resources and maximize the benefits of limited water resources. (4) due to the complexity of early warning problems, there are still several problems that need to be deepened. When regional precipitation is not uniform, some reservoirs may have water supply greater than water demand, and some reservoirs water demand is greater than water supply, so it is necessary to establish connections between reservoirs and carry out joint operation; reservoir water supply involves the life of urban and rural residents. Many fields, such as industry, agriculture and ecology, are related to economic development, social stability and sustainable development.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV213.4;TV697

【参考文献】