基于气温特征值的三湖河口断面冰期预报模型

发布时间：2018-06-21 21:57

本文选题：预报模型 + 冰情预报　；参考：《人民黄河》2017年01期

【摘要】：宁蒙河段是黄河冰凌灾害最严重的河段,三湖河口断面是黄河宁蒙河段防凌防汛的重要控制断面,也是宁蒙测区凌情的首发和频发断面。基于龙羊峡和刘家峡水库联合运用以来三湖河口断面水文、气象、冰情等资料,研究分析河道形态、动力条件等对凌情的影响,统计三湖河口水文断面冰期气温特征值,利用多元线性回归法建立了冰期预报模型。结果表明:1在目前三湖河口断面相对稳定、上游来水变化不大的情况下,气温是影响河道冰凌过程的主要因素;2冰期预报模型的预报合格率均在70%以上,封河日期预报的合格率达到82%,符合相关规范要求。
[Abstract]:The Ningmeng river section is the most serious section of the ice flood disaster in the Yellow River. The section of the three lake estuary is an important control section of the flood prevention and control in the Ningmeng river section of the Yellow River. It is also the first and frequent section of the Ningmeng survey area. Based on the data of the hydrology, meteorology and ice conditions of the three lake estuaries, the river form has been studied and analyzed based on the joint use of the Longyangxia and Liujiaxia Reservoirs. The influence of dynamic conditions on Lingqing, the ice period temperature characteristic value of the hydrology section of the three lake estuary is counted, and the ice age prediction model is established by multiple linear regression method. The results show that the temperature is the main factor of the ice flood in the river channel under the condition that the section of the three lake estuary is relatively stable and the upstream water change is not large, and the forecast model of the 2 ice period is 1. The qualified rate of the forecast is over 70%, and the passing rate of the river closure date is 82%.
【作者单位】：黄河水利委员会水文局;黄河水利委员会宁蒙水文水资源局;
【分类号】：TV875;TV124

【参考文献】