气候变化和人类活动对中国地表水文过程影响定量研究

发布时间：2018-06-28 13:13

本文选题：径流变化 + Budyko假设　；参考：《地理学报》2016年11期

【摘要】：利用中国372个水文站月径流数据(1960-2000年)及41个水文站年径流数据(2001-2014年),采用基于Budyko假设的水热耦合平衡方程,构建气候变化和人类活动对径流变化影响定量评估模型,在Penman-Monteith潜在蒸发分析基础上,进一步分析气象因子对径流变化的弹性系数,量化气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的影响。结果表明:1中国北方地区流域径流变化对各气象因子弹性系数明显大于中国南方地区。就全国而言,径流变化对各因子的弹性系数为:降水土地利用/土地覆盖变化(LUCC)相对湿度太阳辐射最高气温风速最低气温;2 1980-2000年,气候变化总体上有利于增加中国年径流量,而降水对年径流量增加的贡献最为显著;3 1980-2000年,中国南方流域中,气候变化对年径流变化的影响以增加作用为主,而北方流域,以减少年径流作用为主。对中国大多数流域径流变化而言,人类活动的影响主要以减少年径流量为主。2001-2014年,气候变化以减少径流量为主,人类活动对径流变化的影响程度明显增强,气候变化与人类活动对径流变化的贡献率分别为53.5%、46.5%。该研究对气候变化与人类活动影响下,中国水资源规划管理、防灾减灾及保障水资源安全具有重要理论与现实意义。
[Abstract]:Based on the monthly runoff data of 372 hydrological stations in China (1960-2000) and the annual runoff data of 41 hydrological stations (2001-2014), a quantitative assessment model of the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff changes was established by using the coupled balance equation of water and heat based on Budyko's hypothesis. On the basis of Penman-Monteith potential evaporation analysis, the elastic coefficients of meteorological factors on runoff changes and the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff changes are further analyzed. The results show that the elasticity coefficient of runoff variation to various meteorological factors in the northern part of China is higher than that in the southern part of China. As far as the whole country is concerned, the elasticity coefficient of runoff changes to various factors is as follows: precipitation, land use / land cover change (Lucc), relative humidity, solar radiation, maximum temperature, wind speed, minimum temperature, 1980-2000. Climate change is conducive to increasing annual runoff in China. The effect of climate change on the annual runoff change in southern China was mainly increased, while in the northern watershed, the decrease of annual runoff was the most significant contribution of precipitation to the increase of annual runoff. For most watershed runoff changes in China, the impact of human activities is mainly on reducing annual runoff. 2001-2014, climate change mainly reduces runoff, and the impact of human activities on runoff change is obviously enhanced. The contribution rates of climate change and human activities to runoff change are 53.5% and 46.5% respectively. Under the influence of climate change and human activities, this study has important theoretical and practical significance in planning and management of water resources, disaster prevention and mitigation, and ensuring the safety of water resources in China.
【作者单位】：中山大学水资源与环境系;中山大学华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室;北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室;北京师范大学减灾与应急管理研究院;河海大学水文水资源学院;
【基金】：国家杰出青年科学基金项目(51425903) 国家自然科学基金重大项目(51190091) 安徽省自然科学基金项目(1508085MD65)~~
【分类号】：P333

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