基于Copula函数的桃林口水库防洪风险分析

发布时间：2018-06-28 22:55

本文选题：随机模拟 + 联合分布　；参考：《水利水电技术》2017年03期

【摘要】：为了对桃林口水库进行防洪风险分析,采用阿基米德Gumbel-Hougaard Copula连接函数,构建了入库洪峰与洪量的两变量联合分布模型,由随机抽样模拟洪峰和洪量系列,然后基于洪水类别生成洪水过程线。同时综合考虑了水库泄洪能力与水位库容关系水力不确定性因素,采用Monte Carlo法计算桃林口水库在现行常规调度条件下不同风险因子组合对应的水库调度风险定量关系。结果表明,桃林口水库防洪风险系统最主要的控制因素是水文风险,水力风险影响次之。降低汛限水位及采取合理的控泄方式可极大地减轻下游的防洪压力,而该调度方式下水库本身的风险率很小。研究成果为当地水库管理与防汛部门制定科学、合理的防洪规划,为未来合理利用洪水资源探索汛限水位动态化管理提供一定的参考。
[Abstract]:In order to analyze the flood control risk of Taolinkou Reservoir, a two-variable joint distribution model of Hong Feng and flood volume was constructed by using Archimedes Gumbel-Hougaard Copula connection function. The Hong Feng and flood volume series were simulated by random sampling. The flood process line is then generated based on the flood type. At the same time, considering the relationship between flood discharge capacity and water level and reservoir capacity, the Monte Carlo method is used to calculate the quantitative relationship of reservoir operation risk corresponding to different risk factors combination under the current normal operation conditions. The results show that the main control factor of flood control risk system of Taolinkou reservoir is hydrological risk, followed by hydraulic risk. Lowering the flood limit water level and adopting reasonable control and discharge method can greatly reduce the downstream flood control pressure, but the risk rate of reservoir itself is very small under this operation mode. The research results provide a certain reference for the local reservoir management and flood control departments to formulate scientific and reasonable flood control planning and to explore the dynamic management of flood limit water level in the future by rational use of flood resources.
【作者单位】：天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室;河北省桃林口水库管理局;
【分类号】：TV697.13

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