英那河水库洪水预报与防洪预报调度规则研究

发布时间：2018-07-07 19:57

本文选题：洪水预报 + 预报误差　；参考：《大连理工大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：洪水给人类带来巨大生命、财产损失。目前应对洪水灾害有两种办法：工程措施与非工程措施。水库作为重要的工程措施在防洪减灾方面发挥了巨大的作用,与之对应的,科学合理的洪水调度作为重要的非工程措施是使水库安全运行、减小洪灾损失和实现洪水资源最大化的关键。在实时洪水调度中,洪水预报不但可以延长预见期,而且可以明确洪水信息,帮助调度人员进行科学决策,但在实施水库防洪预报调度规则时,尤其对防洪库容小的水库,不得不考虑洪水预报误差的问题。基于上述论述,本文针对英那河水库,依据现有水库水文资料,在分析洪水特性的基础上,选择适合的模型编制洪水预报方案；在考虑产流预报误差的基础上,制定英那河水库防洪预报调度规则,并分析调度规则的合理性。主要研究内容与成果如下：(1)考虑英那河水库水文资料年限短,观测设备精度差导致资料的真实性降低的客观事实,对资料进行可靠性、一致性、代表性审查,重点进行水量平衡分析。对水文资料存在问题的地方,进行修正或者插补延长。(2)本文选择了21场雨洪关系合理的洪水。从下垫面条件、气候状况等方面分析英那河流域特性后,选用新安江模型进行洪水预报方案编制。方案编制过程中,首先考虑不分类预报,若不分类预报方案不能满足精度和实际应用要求,需要进行洪水分类。产流模拟过程中未进行分类,21场洪水有2场不合格,合格率达到90.5%,精度等级为甲级。汇流模拟未分类时预报精度较低,因此,依据初始土壤含水量对洪水进行分类,参与模拟的17场洪水中有3场不合格,合格率达到82.3%,确定性系数较高,精度等级为乙级。洪水预报方案可以用于发布正式预报。(3)英那河水库常规调度方式考虑预泄,但预泄规则不明确,因此,利用产流预报中的累计净雨信息制定预泄规则,并结合实际入库流量制定防洪预报调度规则。首先,不考虑产流预报误差,从防洪安全和供水安全角度出发,依据累计净雨和实测入库流量建立防洪预报调度规则；最后考虑产流预报误差,在重点保障防洪安全的前提下,修正调度规则,并分析对水库回蓄的影响,结果显示,修正的规则可能对兴利蓄水有一定影响,但概率很小。最后对全文进行了总结,且对有待进一步深入的问题进行了展望。
[Abstract]:The flood brought great loss of life and property to mankind. At present, there are two ways to deal with flood disaster: engineering measures and non-engineering measures. Reservoir, as an important engineering measure, has played a great role in flood control and disaster reduction. Correspondingly, the scientific and reasonable flood regulation, as an important non-engineering measure, makes the reservoir operate safely. The key to reduce flood losses and maximize flood resources. In real-time flood operation, flood forecast can not only prolong the forecast period, but also definite the flood information and help the dispatcher to make scientific decision. However, when implementing the rules of reservoir flood control forecasting and dispatching, especially for reservoirs with small flood control capacity, We have to consider the problem of flood forecast error. Based on the above discussion, according to the existing reservoir hydrological data, based on the analysis of flood characteristics, this paper selects a suitable model for flood forecasting, considering the error of runoff forecasting. The rules of flood control and forecast operation of Yingnahe Reservoir are formulated and the rationality of the rules is analyzed. The main research contents and results are as follows: (1) considering the objective fact that the hydrological data of Yingnahe Reservoir is short and the accuracy of observation equipment is poor, the reliability, consistency and representativeness of the data are examined. Emphasis is placed on water balance analysis. The problems in hydrological data are corrected or extended by interpolation. (2) 21 floods with reasonable relationship between rain and flood are selected in this paper. After analyzing the characteristics of Yingna River basin in terms of underlying surface conditions and climate conditions, the Xinanjiang model was selected to compile the flood forecasting scheme. In the process of making the scheme, the first consideration is not classified forecast, if not classified forecast scheme can not meet the accuracy and practical application requirements, flood classification needs to be carried out. In the process of runoff production simulation, there are 2 unqualified floods in 21 flood fields without classification, the qualified rate is 90.5 and the precision grade is Grade A. The forecasting accuracy of the confluence simulation is low when it is not classified, therefore, according to the initial soil moisture content, 3 of the 17 flood fields involved in the simulation are unqualified, the qualified rate is 82.3, the certainty coefficient is high, and the precision grade is B. The flood forecast scheme can be used to issue the official forecast. (3) the routine operation mode of Yingnahe Reservoir considers the pre-discharge, but the pre-discharge rules are not clear. Therefore, the accumulative net rain information in the runoff production forecast is used to formulate the pre-discharge rules. Combined with the actual flow into the reservoir, the flood control and forecast operation rules are formulated. First of all, without considering the error of runoff production forecast, from the point of view of flood control safety and water supply safety, the rules of flood control forecasting are established according to the accumulative net rain and the measured inflow discharge. Finally, considering the error of runoff production forecast, we should ensure the safety of flood control by focusing on the safety of flood control. The results show that the modified rules may have a certain effect on the reservoir storage, but the probability is very small. In the end, the paper summarizes the whole paper and looks forward to the further problems.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TV697.1

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