大别山库区降水预报性能评估及应用对策

发布时间：2018-07-09 15:13

本文选题：大别山库区 + 降水预报　；参考：《湖泊科学》2017年06期

【摘要】：对降水预报进行性能评估及应用对策研究可以更好地发挥降水预报在水库调度中的决策支持作用.基于大别山库区近10 a汛期(2007—2016年5月1日—9月30日)24~168 h共7个预见期降水预报和地面降水观测资料,采用正确率、TS评分、概率统计、ROC曲线以及CTS等方法评估大别山库区降水预报性能,并以响洪甸水库为重点研究区域分析降水预报在水库调度中的应用对策.结果表明:1)大别山库区各量级的降水预报都有正预报技巧;24~72 h预见期降水预报的TS评分较高且空报率、漏报率也较低,具有较高的预报性能;但96 h及以上预见期降水预报性能明显下降,中雨以上量级空报率、漏报率较大,特别是对大暴雨及其以上量级的降水预报性能显著下降.2)大别山库区预报降水量级与实况降水量级基本符合,预报降水量级大于等于实况降水量级的概率超过75%;虽然降水预报量级上呈现出过度预报的现象,但降水过程预报对水库调度仍有较好的应用价值,应用时要考虑到降水预报量级可能存在偏差.3)转折性天气预报96 h及以上预见期CTS评分较低,但72 h以内预见期的性能明显改进,尤其是24 h预见期CTS评分也提高到了38.2%;水库调度可从长预见期的降水预报获取降水过程及其可能发生转折的信息,根据短预见期的降水预报进行调度方案调整.
[Abstract]:The performance evaluation of precipitation forecast and the study of its application countermeasures can play a better role in the decision support of reservoir operation. Based on the precipitation forecast and surface precipitation observation data of 24168h in recent 10 years flood season (2007-2016) in Dabie Mountain reservoir area, the correct rate and TS score are used. Probabilistic statistical ROC curve and CTS are used to evaluate the performance of precipitation prediction in Dabie Mountain reservoir area. The regional analysis of precipitation forecast in Xianghongdian Reservoir is studied. The results show that every order of magnitude precipitation forecast in Dabie Mountain area has positive forecast technique. The TS score of precipitation forecast in 2472 h prediction period is higher and the rate of missing report is also lower, and the forecast performance is higher. However, the forecast performance of precipitation in 96 h and above forecast period is obviously decreased, and the rate of missing report is higher than that of moderate rain, and the rate of missing report is higher than that of moderate rain. In particular, for heavy rainstorms and above, the performance of precipitation forecasting is significantly decreased by .2) the predicted precipitation level in the Dabie Mountain reservoir area is basically in line with the actual precipitation level. The probability of forecasting precipitation level greater than or equal to that of real precipitation level is more than 75. Although there is a phenomenon of excessive forecast on the order of precipitation forecast, the precipitation process forecast still has a good application value for reservoir operation. In application, it should be taken into account that there may be a deviation of 3. 3) CTS scores in the favorable weather forecast for 96 h and above are low, but the performance of the forecast period within 72 h is obviously improved. Especially, the CTS score of 24 h prediction period is also increased to 38.2, and the reservoir operation can obtain the precipitation process and its possible turning information from the precipitation forecast in the long forecast period, and adjust the operation scheme according to the precipitation forecast in the short forecast period.
【作者单位】：安徽省气象台;安徽省大气科学与卫星遥感重点实验室;安徽省水文局;南京信息工程大学大气科学学院;
【基金】：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406021)资助
【分类号】：P457.6;TV697

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