基于证据理论的水利工程招标风险评估

发布时间：2018-07-09 15:56

本文选题：招标系统 + 证据理论　；参考：《湖北工业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：招标已成为国内外水利工程实施的首要任务,随着对招标不断深入的研究,风险在整个招标系统中体现的越来越明显。如何有效规避水利工程招标风险收到越来越多管理者重视。为准确评价水利工程招标风险,掌握水利工程招标风险评估方法,作者在学习国内外招标现状的基础上,进行水利工程招标风险评估。首先,界定了水利工程招标系统风险性评价的内涵,比较分析了风险性评价方法;提出D-S证据理论能有效降低不确定性,适用于对水利工程招标系统进行风险性评价。结合具体招标流程,确定了影响招标风险性的指标为环境风险因素、招标过程风宪因素和职业道德风险因素,并确定各风险指标的权重。然后,确定各子系统影响因素由社会动荡、文化差异、汇率变化、经济形势、法律完善程度、政策变更,水文条件,地质条件,气候条件,发包方式,合同类型,招标方式,招标文件,投标文件,评标方式,评标组织,合同完善程度,风险分配,招标单位责任心,招标单位公平性,招标代理机构的信誉度,投标单位的信用度,投标单位恶意投标,投标单位诚信度共同决定等24项风险性评价指标构成;综合运用层次分析法(AHP)依次确定子系统与评价指标的权重;针对揭阳市北河桥闸重建工程招标系统的特点,构建了基于D-S证据理论的招标系统风险评价模型,确定系统的风险性等级。最后,结合揭阳市北河桥闸重建工程招标系统的工程实际,咨询6位专家,经信任度处理后得到评价指标的概率分配函数,融合证据确定各指标的风险性等级,加权迭代确定各子系统的风险性等级,最终确定揭阳市北河桥闸重建工程招标系统的风险性等级为3R级,即招标系统存在一般问题,及时整改,符合实际招标系统实际情况。验证了评估模型的有效性和合理性,对其它类似工程具有借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:Bidding has become the most important task of water conservancy projects at home and abroad. With the study of tender, the risk is more and more obvious in the whole bidding system. More and more managers attach importance to how to effectively avoid the risk of water conservancy project bidding. In order to evaluate the bidding risk of water conservancy project accurately and master the evaluation method of bidding risk of water conservancy project, the author evaluates the bidding risk of water conservancy project on the basis of studying the present situation of bidding at home and abroad. Firstly, the connotation of the risk evaluation of water conservancy bidding system is defined, and the evaluation method of risk is compared and analyzed, and the D-S evidence theory can effectively reduce the uncertainty and is suitable for evaluating the risk of water conservancy bidding system. Combined with the specific bidding process, the environmental risk factors, the constitutional factors and the professional ethics risk factors are determined, and the weight of each risk index is determined. Then, it is determined that the factors affecting each subsystem are social unrest, cultural differences, exchange rate changes, economic situation, degree of legal perfection, policy change, hydrological conditions, geological conditions, climatic conditions, contracting methods, contract types, bidding methods, Tender documents, bid evaluation methods, bid evaluation organization, degree of contract perfection, risk allocation, responsibility of tendering units, fairness of bidding units, credibility of bidding agencies, credit of bidding units, and malicious bidding by tenderers, According to the characteristics of the bidding system of the Beiheqiao sluice reconstruction project in Jieyang City, 24 risk evaluation indexes are determined by the mutual determination of the credibility of the tenderer, the weight of the subsystem and the evaluation index are determined in turn by the comprehensive use of the Analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The risk evaluation model of bidding system based on D-S evidence theory is constructed to determine the risk level of the system. Finally, in combination with the engineering practice of the bidding system for the reconstruction project of Beiheqiao sluice in Jieyang City, six experts are consulted, and the probability distribution function of the evaluation index is obtained after the trust degree treatment, and the risk grade of each index is determined by combining the evidence. The weighted iteration determines the risk grade of each subsystem, and finally determines that the risk level of the bidding system for the reconstruction project of Beiheqiao sluice in Jieyang City is 3R, that is, there are general problems in the bidding system and timely rectification, which accords with the actual situation of the bidding system. The validity and rationality of the evaluation model are verified, which is useful for other similar projects.
【学位授予单位】：湖北工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TV512

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