面平均雨量的系统响应曲线修正方法及其在富春江流域洪水预报中的应用

发布时间：2018-07-16 23:35

【摘要】：空间集总式水文模型的洪水预报精度会受到面平均雨量估计误差的严重影响。点雨量测量值的误差类型、误差大小以及流域的雨量站点密度和站点的空间分布都会影响到面平均雨量的计算,这种误差的影响在雨量站个数较少的大流域尤为明显。为提高实时洪水预报精度,本文提出了一种基于降雨系统响应曲线洪水预报误差修正方法。此方法将水文模型作为输入和输出之间的响应系统,用实测流量和计算流量之间的差值作为信息,通过降雨系统响应曲线,采用最小二乘估计方法,对面平均雨量进行修正,再使用修正后的面平均雨量重新计算出流过程。将此修正方法与新安江模型相结合,首先使用理想案例进行检验,然后将此方法应用于浙江富春江流域实时洪水预报中,通过2010—2014年间的14场历史洪水的应用检验,结果表明该方法具有明显修正效果,是一种结构简单、不增加模型参数且不改变预报模型结构的实时洪水预报修正的新方法。
[Abstract]:The accuracy of the spatial lumped hydrological model will be seriously affected by the area average rainfall estimation error. The error type, error magnitude, rainfall station density and spatial distribution of the rainfall stations will affect the calculation of the mean area rainfall, especially in the large watershed where the number of rainfall stations is small. In order to improve the accuracy of real time flood forecasting, a method of correcting flood forecast error based on response curve of rainfall system is proposed in this paper. In this method, the hydrological model is taken as the response system between input and output, and the difference between measured and calculated discharge is used as information. Through the response curve of rainfall system, the method of least square estimation is used to correct the average rainfall. The flow process is recalculated using the revised areal average rainfall. The modified method is combined with the Xinanjiang model, and the ideal case is first used to test it. Then, the method is applied to the real-time flood forecasting in Fuchun River Basin of Zhejiang Province. The application test of 14 historical floods in 2010-2014 is carried out. The results show that this method has obvious correction effect and is a new method with simple structure, no increase of model parameters and no change of forecasting model structure.
【作者单位】：河海大学水文及水资源学院;国网新源水电有限公司富春江水力发电厂;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51279057);国家自然科学基金项目(41371048;51190091;51479062) 水利部公益性行业科研专项项目(201401034)
【分类号】：TV125

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